State Key Laboratory of Control and Simulation of Power Systems and Generation Equipment, Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, China.
State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, 102206, Beijing, China.
Nat Commun. 2020 Nov 27;11(1):6054. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-19854-y.
China has enacted a series of policies since 2015 to substitute electricity for in-home combustion for rural residential heating. The Electric Heating Policy (EHP) has contributed to significant improvements in air quality, benefiting hundreds of millions of people. This shift, however, has resulted in a sharp increase in electric loads and associated carbon emissions. Here, we show that China's EHP will greatly increase carbon emissions. We develop a theoretical model to quantify the carbon emissions from power generation and rural residential heating sectors. We found that in 2015, an additional 101.69-162.89 megatons of CO could potentially be emitted if EHP was implemented in 45-55% of rural residents in Northern China. In 2020, the incremental carbon emission is expected to reach 130.03-197.87 megatons. Fortunately, the growth of carbon emission will slow down due to China's urbanization progress. In 2030, the carbon emission increase induced by EHP will drop to 119.19-177.47 megatons. Finally, we conclude two kinds of practical pathways toward low-carbon electric heating, and provide techno-economic analyses.
中国自 2015 年以来颁布了一系列政策，以电力替代农村居民的家庭供暖。电采暖政策（EHP）显著改善了空气质量，使数亿人受益。然而，这一转变导致电力负荷和相关碳排放急剧增加。在这里，我们表明中国的 EHP 将大大增加碳排放。我们开发了一个理论模型来量化发电和农村居民供暖部门的碳排放。我们发现，如果在北方 45-55%的农村居民中实施 EHP，2015 年可能会额外排放 101.69-162.89 百万吨 CO。到 2020 年，预计增量碳排放将达到 130.03-197.87 百万吨。幸运的是，由于中国的城市化进程，碳排放的增长将放缓。到 2030 年，EHP 引起的碳排放增加将降至 119.19-177.47 百万吨。最后，我们得出了两种实现低碳电采暖的实用途径，并进行了技术经济分析。
