Department of Land Resourse Management, College of Public Administration, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China.
Department of Land Resource Management, College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Apr 21;19(9):5039. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19095039.
Land finance has consumed a lot of China's urban land resources while contributing to its economic growth. Urban land expansion, land finance, and economic growth have attracted significant scholarly and social attention. However, the influence mechanisms among them have not yet been fully investigated. Based on a conceptual framework analysis, in this study, the panel unit-root test, system-GMM, panel Granger causality test, impulse-response analysis, and variance decomposition were used to analyze the interactional relationships among urban land expansion, land finance, and economic growth for 30 provinces in mainland China during the period of 2000-2017. The findings show that these three factors interact with each other. Land finance exhibits a positive effect on urban land expansion and economic growth. This result is further supported by the Granger causality tests. Moreover, the VAR Granger causality-test results show a unidirectional causality flowing from urban land expansion to economic growth. The impulse-response analysis also reveals that the responses of urban land expansion to shocks in land finance appear to be positive throughout the 10 periods, which is similar to the reaction of economic growth to shocks in land finance. The result of variance decomposition indicates that the explanatory power of urban land expansion for land finance increased from 0.20% to 1.90%. In contrast, the changes in economic growth made the lowest contributions to urban land expansion and land finance. The latter made the highest contribution to economic growth, with average contribution rate of 65.26%. The findings of this study provide valuable policy implications for China, heading for a high-quality development stage.
土地财政消耗了中国大量的城市土地资源，同时也推动了经济增长。城市土地扩张、土地财政和经济增长引起了学术界和社会的广泛关注。然而，它们之间的影响机制尚未得到充分研究。基于概念框架分析，本研究采用面板单位根检验、系统-GMM、面板格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解方法，分析了 2000-2017 年中国内地 30 个省份城市土地扩张、土地财政和经济增长之间的相互关系。结果表明，这三个因素相互作用。土地财政对城市土地扩张和经济增长具有正向影响。格兰杰因果检验进一步支持了这一结果。此外，VAR 格兰杰因果检验结果表明，城市土地扩张对土地财政冲击的单向因果关系存在。脉冲响应分析还表明，城市土地扩张对土地财政冲击的反应在 10 个时期内均为正，这与经济增长对土地财政冲击的反应相似。方差分解的结果表明，城市土地扩张对土地财政的解释能力从 0.20%增加到 1.90%。相比之下，经济增长的变化对城市土地扩张和土地财政的贡献最小。土地财政对经济增长的贡献最大，平均贡献率为 65.26%。本研究的结果为中国迈向高质量发展阶段提供了有价值的政策启示。
