School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Apr 26;19(9):5290. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19095290.
An improved understanding of how policies can promote the diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs) is critical to achieving sustainable development. Previous studies of EV diffusion dynamics have paid insufficient attention to consumer preferences. In this paper, a network-based evolutionary game model considering dynamic consumer preference is constructed to study EV diffusion. Through numerical experiments, the evolutionary processes and results of various promotion policies, including carbon taxes, production subsidies, purchase subsidies, and information policy on EV diffusion, are simulated. In particular, this paper explores the differentiated effects of supply-side policies and demand-side policies. The simulation results indicate that: (1) The effectiveness of promotion policies is sensitive to the size of the manufacturer network, and large networks can dampen periodical fluctuations in diffusion rates. (2) Supply-side carbon taxes and subsidies facilitate a steady diffusion of EVs. However, compared with the sustained effectiveness of subsidies, carbon taxes may inhibit the rapid penetration of EVs. (3) Implementing purchase subsidies in the early stages of diffusion is more effective than production subsidies, but the potential uncertainty of demand-side subsidies should be noted. (4) The impact of information policy on the evolutionary trend of EV diffusion is pronounced but is a longer-term impact, requiring a long enough implementation horizon.
提高对政策如何促进电动汽车 (EV) 扩散的理解对于实现可持续发展至关重要。先前对电动汽车扩散动态的研究对消费者偏好关注不足。本文构建了一个考虑动态消费者偏好的基于网络的演化博弈模型来研究电动汽车的扩散。通过数值实验，模拟了包括碳税、生产补贴、购买补贴和电动汽车扩散信息政策在内的各种推广政策的演化过程和结果。特别地，本文探讨了供应方政策和需求方政策的差异化效应。模拟结果表明：（1）推广政策的有效性对制造商网络的大小敏感，大型网络可以抑制扩散率的周期性波动。（2）供应方的碳税和补贴有助于电动汽车的稳定扩散。然而，与补贴的持续有效性相比，碳税可能会抑制电动汽车的快速渗透。（3）在扩散的早期阶段实施购买补贴比生产补贴更有效，但需求方补贴的潜在不确定性值得关注。（4）信息政策对电动汽车扩散演化趋势的影响显著，但这是一个长期影响，需要足够长的实施期限。
