Faculty of Medicine, Medical University of Gdańsk, Marii Skłodowskiej-Curie 3a, 80-210 Gdansk, Poland.
Department of Allergology, Medical University of Gdańsk, Smoluchowskiego 17, 80-214 Gdansk, Poland.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 May 5;19(9):5613. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19095613.
Low air quality in Poland is a problem of particularly high urgency. Therefore, Poles must be aware of air quality levels, also during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aimed to compare air-pollution-related information-seeking behaviour between the pre- and intra-pandemic periods as well as between the actual and theoretical machine-learning-forecasted intra-pandemic models. Google Trends search volumes (GTSVs) in Poland for air-pollution-related keywords were collected between January 2016 and January 2022. To investigate the changes that would have occurred without the outbreak of the pandemic, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) machine-learning models were trained. Approximately 4,500,000 search queries were analysed. Between pre- and intra-pandemic periods, weighted mean GTSVs changed by -39.0%. When the actual intra-pandemic weighted mean GTSVs were compared to the intra-pandemic forecasts, the actual values were lower by -16.5% (SARIMA's error = 6.2%). Compared to the pre-pandemic period, in the intra-pandemic period, the number of search queries containing keywords connected with air pollution decreased. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic might have facilitated the decrease. Possible causes include an attention shift towards everyday problems connected to the pandemic, worse mental health status and lower outdoor exposure that might have resulted in a lower intensity of non-pandemic-related active information-seeking behaviour.
波兰的低空气质量是一个极其紧迫的问题。因此,波兰人必须意识到空气质量水平,即使在 COVID-19 大流行期间也是如此。本研究旨在比较大流行前和大流行期间以及实际和理论机器学习预测大流行模型期间与空气污染相关的信息搜索行为。在 2016 年 1 月至 2022 年 1 月期间,在波兰收集了与空气污染相关的关键字的 Google Trends 搜索量 (GTSV)。为了研究在没有大流行爆发的情况下可能发生的变化,训练了季节性自回归综合移动平均 (SARIMA) 机器学习模型。分析了大约 450 万次搜索查询。在大流行前和大流行期间,加权平均 GTSV 下降了 39.0%。当将实际大流行期间的加权平均 GTSV 与大流行期间的预测值进行比较时,实际值下降了 16.5%(SARIMA 的误差=6.2%)。与大流行前时期相比,在大流行期间,包含与空气污染相关的关键字的搜索查询数量减少了。此外,COVID-19 大流行可能促成了这种减少。可能的原因包括注意力转向与大流行相关的日常问题,心理健康状况恶化和户外活动减少,这可能导致与非大流行相关的主动信息搜索行为的强度降低。