World Development Group, Inc, Bethesda, MD, United States.
Front Public Health. 2022 Apr 27;10:838561. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.838561. eCollection 2022.
The world was unprepared for COVID-19. Pandemics can unfold quickly; faster than governments can respond, unless they have maintained a realistic pandemic playbook. As the world ahead becomes ever-more complex, such playbook becomes ever-more necessary. This article not only describes the importance of a pandemic playbook but also a system to maintain it. A pandemic playbook both (1) specifies what is needed to respond to a pandemic and (2) provides a lens through which to identify measures that will keep people safe and society secure. The plays in the book are thought-though policies and strategies and corresponding implementation plans. The process of developing a playbook is as important as the product. Any playbook must be fit for purpose in the context of the times in which it is to be used. Above all, it must contain realistic policies and plans that can actually be implemented and can realize their intended effects. Achieving this goal requires (1) repeatedly exercising the playbook so that people know what to do when they need to do it and (2) evaluating results and updating the playbook to keep it relevant and current. Necessarily, to bring ideas alive, this article illustrates them with reference to COVID-19 and earlier pandemics, but it is not intended as a playbook for responding to the next pandemic; nor a postmortem on responses to COVID-19. Instead, it describes actions to take now to be ready when the next global pandemic strikes, so that policy decision-makers will not be lamenting "we should have done that."
世界对 COVID-19 毫无准备。大流行可能迅速蔓延；如果政府没有制定现实的大流行预案，其应对速度可能赶不上疫情的发展。随着世界变得越来越复杂，这种预案就变得越来越有必要。本文不仅描述了大流行预案的重要性，还描述了维护预案的系统。大流行预案不仅（1）指明了应对大流行所需的措施，还（2）提供了一个视角，通过这个视角可以确定哪些措施可以确保人民安全和社会稳定。预案中的“剧本”是经过深思熟虑的政策、战略和相应的实施计划。制定预案的过程与预案本身同样重要。任何预案都必须符合其使用时的时代背景。最重要的是，预案必须包含实际可行的、能够实现预期效果的现实政策和计划。要实现这一目标，需要（1）反复演练预案，以便人们在需要时知道该做什么，（2）评估结果并更新预案，以保持其相关性和时效性。为了使这些理念生动起来，本文参考 COVID-19 和早期的大流行进行了说明，但本文并非针对下一次大流行的应对预案，也不是对 COVID-19 应对情况的事后分析。相反，本文描述了现在应采取的行动，以便为下一次全球大流行做好准备，从而避免政策决策者发出“我们本应采取那些行动”的遗憾。
