Forsythe Eliza, Kahn Lisa B, Lange Fabian, Wiczer David
University of Illinois, United States of America.
University of Rochester, United States of America.
J Public Econ. 2020 Sep;189:104238. doi: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104238. Epub 2020 Jul 13.
We use job vacancy data collected in real time by Burning Glass Technologies, as well as unemployment insurance (UI) initial claims and the more traditional Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment data to study the impact of COVID-19 on the labor market. Our job vacancy data allow us to track the economy at disaggregated geography and by detailed occupation and industry. We find that job vacancies collapsed in the second half of March. By late April, they had fallen by over 40%. To a first approximation, this collapse was broad based, hitting all U.S. states, regardless of the timing of stay-at-home policies. UI claims and BLS employment data also largely match these patterns. Nearly all industries and occupations saw contraction in postings and spikes in UI claims, with little difference depending on whether they are deemed essential and whether they have work-from-home capability. Essential retail, the "front line" job most in-demand during the current crisis, took a much smaller hit, while leisure and hospitality services and non-essential retail saw the biggest collapses. This set of facts suggests the economic collapse was not caused solely by the stay-at-home orders, and is therefore unlikely to be undone simply by lifting them.
我们使用由燃玻璃技术公司实时收集的职位空缺数据，以及失业保险（UI）初次申请数据和更传统的劳工统计局（BLS）就业数据，来研究新冠疫情对劳动力市场的影响。我们的职位空缺数据使我们能够按细分地理区域、详细职业和行业来追踪经济状况。我们发现，职位空缺在3月下旬暴跌。到4月底，职位空缺下降了超过40%。初步估算，这种暴跌是广泛存在的，波及美国所有州，无论居家政策实施的时间先后。失业保险申请数据和劳工统计局就业数据也基本符合这些模式。几乎所有行业和职业的招聘信息都出现了收缩，失业保险申请激增，无论这些行业和职业是否被视为必需品行业，以及是否具备居家办公能力，差别都不大。在当前危机期间需求最大的“一线”工作——必需品零售行业受到的冲击要小得多，而休闲和酒店服务业以及非必需品零售行业则遭受了最大的暴跌。这一系列事实表明，经济崩溃并非仅仅由居家令导致，因此不太可能仅仅通过解除这些命令就得到缓解。
