Ma Lin, Shapira Gil, de Walque Damien, Do Quy-Toan, Friedman Jed, Levchenko Andrei A
Singapore Management University Singapore.
World Bank.
Int Econ Rev (Philadelphia). 2022 Apr 24. doi: 10.1111/iere.12574.
In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain COVID-19 transmission can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, we build a macrosusceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality and calibrate it to data for 85 countries across all income levels. We find that in some low-income countries, a lockdown can produce net increases in mortality. The optimal lockdown that maximizes the present value of aggregate social welfare is shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones.
在低收入国家，为遏制新冠病毒传播而实施的封锁措施所带来的经济收缩会增加儿童死亡率，抵消封锁措施所实现的死亡率降低效果。为了将这种影响形式化并进行量化，我们构建了一个宏观易感-感染-康复模型（macrosusceptible-infected-recovered model），该模型具有异质性主体以及经济衰退与儿童死亡率之间特定于国家组别的关系，并将其校准至所有收入水平的85个国家的数据。我们发现，在一些低收入国家，封锁可能会导致死亡率净上升。使总体社会福利现值最大化的最优封锁措施在较贫穷国家比在富裕国家更短且更宽松。
