Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, College Park, 20742, USA.
Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Sci Rep. 2021 Nov 22;11(1):22658. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-02133-1.
As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic spread across the world over the past year, many countries imposed lockdowns in the form of stay at home requirements on their citizens to mitigate its spread. We analyze mobility data from 93 countries implementing lockdowns to investigate their immediate impact on mobility and the subsequent evolution of mobility. We find that at the start of a lockdown, median mobility is reduced to 36% below the baseline, and by another 18% in the subsequent 2 weeks. 70 countries had lockdowns lasting beyond 4 weeks and showed a significant reduction in mobility compared to that prior to the lockdown. Mobility was at its minimum 18 days into the lockdown for the median country. Comparing this minimum mobility to the average mobility 2 weeks before the lockdown, we observe a median reduction of 50 percentage points, evidencing that lockdowns reduce mobility. For 59 of these 70 countries, lockdowns lasted at least 4 weeks after reaching minimum mobility and most observed a significant rebound in mobility during the lockdown period. For the median country, 30.1% of the mobility reduction achieved is lost within 4 weeks, and lockdowns lose all their impact on mobility in 112.1 days. Overall, our findings show that while lockdowns significantly reduce mobility, this impact is also subject to fatigue as the lockdown period extends longer. The magnitude of mobility reductions achieved and fatigues reported in this research can help policy makers anticipate the likely impact of their lockdown policies.
在过去一年中,随着新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)疫情在全球范围内蔓延,许多国家对其公民实施了居家令等封锁措施,以减缓其传播。我们分析了 93 个实施封锁的国家的流动数据,以调查封锁对流动的直接影响及其随后的流动演变。我们发现,在封锁开始时,中位数流动性降低到基线以下 36%,在随后的 2 周内又降低了 18%。70 个国家的封锁时间超过 4 周,与封锁前相比,流动性显著下降。中位数国家的流动性在封锁的第 18 天达到最低。将这一最低流动性与封锁前两周的平均流动性进行比较,我们观察到中位数下降了 50 个百分点,这表明封锁减少了流动性。在这 70 个国家中的 59 个国家中,封锁至少持续了 4 周,达到最低流动性,而且在封锁期间,大多数国家的流动性都出现了显著反弹。对于中位数国家,在 4 周内,流动性减少的 30.1%会恢复,而封锁在 112.1 天内完全失去对流动性的影响。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,尽管封锁显著降低了流动性,但随着封锁期的延长,这种影响也会出现疲劳。本研究报告的流动性减少幅度和疲劳程度可以帮助决策者预测其封锁政策可能产生的影响。