Barro Robert J, Ursúa José F
Harvard University.
Dodge & Cox Joanna Weng, EverLife.
Res Econ. 2022 Mar;76(1):21-29. doi: 10.1016/j.rie.2022.01.001. Epub 2022 Jan 21.
Data for 48 countries during the Great Influenza Pandemic imply flu-related deaths in 1918-1920 of 40 million, 2.1 percent of world population, implying 160 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918-1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. Higher flu death rates also decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills.
48个国家在大流感大流行期间的数据表明，1918年至1920年与流感相关的死亡人数为4000万，占世界人口的2.1%，若应用于当前人口则意味着1.6亿人死亡。对1918年至1920年流感死亡和第一次世界大战期间战争死亡的年度信息进行回归分析表明，在典型国家，流感导致GDP和消费分别下降6%和8%。更高的流感死亡率还降低了股票尤其是短期政府债券的实际回报率。
