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随机社区动态、双峰性或有限疫苗接种下的 COVID-19 疫情控制。

Control of COVID-19 Outbreaks under Stochastic Community Dynamics, Bimodality, or Limited Vaccination.

机构信息

Theoretical Biophysics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Invalidenstr. 42, Berlin, 10115, Germany.

Institute of Biochemistry, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Virchowweg 6, Berlin, 10117, Germany.

出版信息

Adv Sci (Weinh). 2022 Aug;9(23):e2200088. doi: 10.1002/advs.202200088. Epub 2022 May 23.

DOI:10.1002/advs.202200088
PMID:35607290
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9348421/
Abstract

Reaching population immunity against COVID-19 is proving difficult even in countries with high vaccination levels. Thus, it is critical to identify limits of control and effective measures against future outbreaks. The effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination strategies are analyzed with a detailed community-specific agent-based model (ABM). The authors demonstrate that the threshold for population immunity is not a unique number, but depends on the vaccination strategy. Prioritizing highly interactive people diminishes the risk for an infection wave, while prioritizing the elderly minimizes fatalities when vaccinations are low. Control over COVID-19 outbreaks requires adaptive combination of NPIs and targeted vaccination, exemplified for Germany for January-September 2021. Bimodality emerges from the heterogeneity and stochasticity of community-specific human-human interactions and infection networks, which can render the effects of limited NPIs uncertain. The authors' simulation platform can process and analyze dynamic COVID-19 epidemiological situations in diverse communities worldwide to predict pathways to population immunity even with limited vaccination.

摘要

在疫苗接种率较高的国家，实现对 COVID-19 的群体免疫也证明是困难的。因此，确定控制和有效应对未来疫情的极限措施至关重要。该研究利用详细的基于主体的特定于社区的模型（ABM）分析了非药物干预（NPI）和疫苗接种策略的效果。研究人员表明，群体免疫的阈值不是一个独特的数字，而是取决于疫苗接种策略。优先考虑高互动性人群可以降低感染浪潮的风险，而在疫苗接种率较低的情况下，优先考虑老年人则可以最大程度地减少死亡人数。控制 COVID-19 疫情需要对 NPI 和有针对性的疫苗接种进行自适应组合，这为 2021 年 1 月至 9 月的德国提供了例证。社区特定人际互动和感染网络的异质性和随机性产生了双峰性，这可能使有限 NPI 的效果变得不确定。研究人员的模拟平台可以处理和分析全球不同社区的动态 COVID-19 流行病学情况，即使在疫苗接种有限的情况下，也可以预测达到群体免疫的途径。

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