Tamor Michael A, Stechel Ellen B
ASU School for the Future of Innovation in Society, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-5603, USA.
ASU LightWorks and the School of Molecular Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-5402, USA.
iScience. 2022 May 7;25(6):104376. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.104376. eCollection 2022 Jun 17.
A hidden barrier to the electrification of transportation is a lack of recognition of what it implies. Although the increasing popularity of battery electric vehicles (BEV) is heartening, the replacement of all personal vehicles with BEV would reduce US transportation emissions of CO by only about half. Aircraft and many ground vehicles are difficult or impossible to electrify. In meeting the "electrification challenge," electricity is a medium for delivering fossil-carbon-free energy in a form suitable for each application whether mobile or stationary. This article synthesizes data from multiple sources to estimate how much biomass and GHG-free electricity will be needed to achieve carbon-neutrality in the US by 2050. Although subject to assumptions for growth and innovation, the resulting need for almost four times the electricity we use today and over 150 billion gallons per year of hydrocarbon fuel and feedstock are so striking as to provide meaningful policy guidance.
交通运输电气化面临的一个隐性障碍是人们对其影响缺乏认识。尽管纯电动汽车（BEV）越来越受欢迎，这令人鼓舞，但用纯电动汽车取代所有个人车辆只会使美国交通运输的二氧化碳排放量减少约一半。飞机和许多地面车辆很难或无法实现电气化。在应对“电气化挑战”时，电力是一种输送无化石碳能源的媒介，其形式适用于各种移动或固定应用。本文综合了多个来源的数据，以估算到2050年美国实现碳中和需要多少生物质和无温室气体电力。尽管这取决于增长和创新的假设，但由此产生的对电力的需求几乎是我们目前用电量的四倍，以及每年超过1500亿加仑的碳氢燃料和原料，这一结果非常惊人，可为政策提供有意义的指导。
