Which type of electric vehicle is worth promoting mostly in the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality? A case study for a metropolis in China.

Electric vehicles (EVs) have been promoted acceleratively to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, however, the GHG emission reduction potential of different powertrain EVs has not been investigated thoroughly. In this study, we firstly quantified and compared the GHG emissions of different powertrain vehicles in a life cycle perspective with particular focus on energy and climate consequences, for current and future integrated scenarios, to facilitate carbon reduction assessment for Shanghai. Four major types of EVs were considered. The results show that life cycle total energy consumption and GHG emissions of all EVs are lower than that of gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (GICEVs), among which battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) is the lowest. Compared with GICEVs, the total energy use and GHG emissions of BEVs decrease by 34.2% and 41.7% respectively. As the electrification of vehicle powertrain system innovates, the life cycle emissions of GHG are gradually concentrated to the upstream stage. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates that life cycle GHG emissions of vehicles are most sensitive to the proportion of thermal power than other three parameters (utilization rate of recycled steel, vehicle lifetime and curb weight). The scenario analysis indicates that BEVs present the more favorable carbon emission decline performance over other EVs from a long-term perspective. It is estimated that up to 12.5 million tons of GHG emissions could be reduced under the optimistic scenario in 2050 in Shanghai. In the process of energy conversion from oil to electricity in transport in Shanghai, BEVs should be constantly promoted.