Intarapanya Tanatorn, Suratanee Apichat, Pattaradilokrat Sittiporn, Plaimas Kitiporn
Advanced Virtual and Intelligence Computing (AVIC) Center, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok 10330, Thailand.
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Applied Science, King Mongkut's University of Technology North Bangkok, Bangkok 10800, Thailand.
Trop Med Infect Dis. 2023 Mar 16;8(3):175. doi: 10.3390/tropicalmed8030175.
COVID-19 is a respiratory disease that can spread rapidly. Controlling the spread through vaccination is one of the measures for activating immunization that helps to reduce the number of infected people. Different types of vaccines are effective in preventing and alleviating the symptoms of the disease in different ways. In this study, a mathematical model, , was developed to assess the behavior of disease transmission in Thailand by considering the vaccine efficacy of different vaccine types and the vaccination rate. The equilibrium points were investigated and the basic reproduction number R0 was calculated using a next-generation matrix to determine the stability of the equilibrium. We found that the disease-free equilibrium point was asymptotically stable if, and only if, R0<1, and the endemic equilibrium was asymptotically stable if, and only if, R0>1. The simulation results and the estimation of the parameters applied to the actual data in Thailand are reported. The sensitivity of parameters related to the basic reproduction number was compared with estimates of the effectiveness of pandemic controls. The simulations of different vaccine efficacies for different vaccine types were compared and the average mixing of vaccine types was reported to assess the vaccination policies. Finally, the trade-off between the vaccine efficacy and the vaccination rate was investigated, resulting in the essentiality of vaccine efficacy to restrict the spread of COVID-19.
新冠肺炎是一种可迅速传播的呼吸道疾病。通过接种疫苗控制传播是激活免疫的措施之一，有助于减少感染人数。不同类型的疫苗以不同方式有效预防和减轻该疾病的症状。在本研究中，通过考虑不同疫苗类型的疫苗效力和接种率，开发了一个数学模型 来评估泰国疾病传播的行为。研究了平衡点，并使用下一代矩阵计算基本再生数R0以确定平衡点的稳定性。我们发现，当且仅当R0<1时，无病平衡点是渐近稳定的；当且仅当R0>1时，地方病平衡点是渐近稳定的。报告了模拟结果以及应用于泰国实际数据的参数估计。将与基本再生数相关的参数敏感性与大流行控制有效性的估计进行了比较。比较了不同疫苗类型不同疫苗效力的模拟，并报告了疫苗类型的平均混合情况以评估疫苗接种政策。最后，研究了疫苗效力与接种率之间的权衡，得出疫苗效力对于限制新冠肺炎传播的必要性。
