Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Michigan Society of Fellows, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Nat Hum Behav. 2022 Aug;6(8):1048-1055. doi: 10.1038/s41562-022-01342-6. Epub 2022 May 30.
The frequency of a cultural trait can influence its tendency to be copied. We develop a maximum-likelihood method to measure such frequency-dependent selection from time series data, and we apply it to baby names and purebred dog preferences over the past century. The form of negative frequency dependence we infer among names explains their diversity patterns, and it replicates across the United States, France, Norway and the Netherlands. We find different growth rates for male versus female names, attributable to different rates of innovation, whereas biblical names enjoy a genuine selective advantage at all frequencies, which explains their predominance among top names. We show how frequency dependence emerges from a host of underlying selective mechanisms, including a preference for novelty that recapitulates boom-bust fads among dog owners. Our analysis of cultural evolution through frequency-dependent selection provides a quantitative account of social pressures to conform or to be different.
文化特征的出现频率会影响其被复制的倾向。我们开发了一种最大似然法，可从时间序列数据中测量这种频率依赖性选择，并将其应用于过去一个世纪的婴儿姓名和纯种犬偏好。我们推断出的负频率依赖性形式可以解释这些名字的多样性模式，并且在美国、法国、挪威和荷兰都得到了复制。我们发现，男女名字的增长率不同，这归因于创新的不同速度，而圣经名字在所有频率上都享有真正的选择优势，这解释了它们在顶级名字中的主导地位。我们展示了频率依赖性如何从一系列潜在的选择机制中产生，包括对新颖性的偏好，这种偏好再现了狗主人中的繁荣-萧条时尚。我们通过频率依赖性选择对文化进化的分析提供了一个定量解释，说明了从众或与众不同的社会压力。
