Asia Pacific Research , Ford Motor Company , Unit 4901, Tower C, Beijing Yintai Center, No. 2 Jianguomenwai Street , Beijing 100022 , China.
Research and Advanced Engineering , Ford Motor Company , 2101 Village Road , Dearborn , Michigan 48121 , United States.
Environ Sci Technol. 2019 May 21;53(10):6063-6072. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.8b05264. Epub 2019 May 7.
Electrification of transportation offers clear national energy security benefits but unclear climate benefits. With the current heterogeneity of grid electricity mix in China, greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) vary dramatically with location. Currently, compared to baseline conventional gasoline vehicles, BEVs in north and northeastern Chinese provinces have very modest (∼10-20%) well-to-wheel (WTW) GHG benefits, whereas BEVs in southern provinces have substantial benefits (∼50%). With the expected transition to a more renewable electricity mix documented here, regional effects will largely disappear and the benefits of BEVs will be substantial (∼60-70% lower than current internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and ∼10-40% lower than 2030 advanced hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs)) across the whole of China by 2030. GHG emissions from BEVs in Chinese cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, and Pearl River Delta) and United States cities and regions (New York; Washington, DC; Chicago; New England; Texas; and California) in 2015 and 2030 are evaluated and compared. BEVs in Chinese cities will still have substantially higher WTW GHG emissions than those in New York, New England, and California in 2030.
交通电气化带来了明显的国家能源安全效益,但气候效益尚不明确。考虑到中国当前电网电力组合的异质性,电动汽车(BEV)的温室气体(GHG)效益因地点而异。目前,与基准传统汽油车相比,中国北部和东北地区的 BEV 的全生命周期温室气体(WTW)效益非常有限(约为 10-20%),而南方省份的 BEV 则具有显著的效益(约为 50%)。随着这里记录的向更可再生电力组合的预期转变,区域影响将基本消失,到 2030 年,BEV 的效益将非常显著(比当前内燃机汽车(ICEV)低约 60-70%,比 2030 年先进混合动力电动汽车(HEV)低约 10-40%),遍及中国各地。评估和比较了 2015 年和 2030 年中国城市(北京、上海、重庆和珠江三角洲)和美国城市和地区(纽约、华盛顿特区、芝加哥、新英格兰、德克萨斯州和加利福尼亚州)的 BEV 的 GHG 排放。到 2030 年,中国城市的 BEV 的全生命周期温室气体排放量仍将远远高于纽约、新英格兰和加利福尼亚的排放量。