Did the Number of Older People Requiring Long-Term Care and Expenditure Increase after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake? Analysis of Changes over Six Years.

On 11 March 2011, the great earthquake hit Japan, resulting in 15,895 deaths, 6156 serious injuries, and 2539 missing persons. This event affected the health and lives of older residents, and reports showed an increase in the number of people eligible for long-term care afterward. In this study, among the places affected by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, we focused on 15 municipalities, including designated municipalities based on the Special Act on Nuclear Evacuation in Fukushima Prefecture, and aimed to clarify the medium-term effects (six years post-disaster) on the long-term care certification rate and expenditure for provision of services. We used the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare Monthly Status Report on Long-Term Care Insurance and the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Population Register for 2011, 2014, and 2017. In 2011, we found no intergroup differences among the 15 Fukushima municipalities and other municipalities in either the long-term care certification rate or the per-person expenditure for use of services. In 2014, after the earthquake, the long-term care certification rate was 5.4% higher in the 15 Fukushima municipalities than in other municipalities for those aged 75 years or older. The rate of 2014-2017 has not increased significantly, partly because of stability after the disaster and change in the population structure. Nevertheless, the long-term care certification rate in the 15 Fukushima municipalities is higher than that of the other two groups even after six years since the earthquake. Similarly, the per-person expenditure for use of services for one month was 11,800 yen higher in the 15 Fukushima municipalities than in other municipalities in 2014, and this trend continued into 2017. Strong, ongoing governmental support is needed, especially for those aged 75 or older, following a disaster.