Erdogan Sinan, Pata Ugur Korkut, Solarin Sakiru Adebola, Okumus Ilyas
Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Hatay Mustafa Kemal University, Hatay, Turkey.
Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Osmaniye Korkut Ata University, Osmaniye, Turkey.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Nov;29(51):77311-77320. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-21278-8. Epub 2022 Jun 8.
Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO) are the most important greenhouse gas. However, until now, no research has investigated the persistence of global CO emissions over a very long period of time. This work aims to fill this gap by examining the persistence of shocks to global CO emissions with a dataset of more than 2000 years. To this end, the study applies a battery of unit root tests by considering sharp and smooth structural shifts as well as the frequency domain properties of the series. Lee-Strazicich method results reveal that sharp break dates relate to the influenza pandemic of 1557 and the invention of the steam engine in 1712, and these historical events led to changes in the trend function of CO emissions. The findings of the Fourier Lagrange Multiplier and Fourier wavelet unit root tests illustrate that global CO emissions contain a unit root and do not exhibit mean-reverting behavior, thus external shocks have permanent effects on CO emissions. The results suggest that a reduction in global CO emissions is possible if effective environmental and energy policies established in international meetings such as Rio Conference, Kyoto Protocol Paris Agreement, and the United Nations Sustainable Development Summit are properly implemented.
人为排放的二氧化碳（CO）是最重要的温室气体。然而，到目前为止，尚无研究在很长一段时间内对全球CO排放的持续性进行调查。这项工作旨在通过使用一个超过2000年的数据集来检验全球CO排放冲击的持续性，以填补这一空白。为此，该研究通过考虑急剧和平稳的结构转变以及序列的频域特性，应用了一系列单位根检验。Lee-Strazicich方法的结果表明，急剧的断点日期与1557年的流感大流行和1712年蒸汽机的发明有关，这些历史事件导致了CO排放趋势函数的变化。傅里叶拉格朗日乘数和傅里叶小波单位根检验的结果表明，全球CO排放包含一个单位根，并且不表现出均值回归行为，因此外部冲击对CO排放有永久性影响。结果表明，如果在里约会议、《京都议定书》、《巴黎协定》和联合国可持续发展峰会等国际会议上制定的有效环境和能源政策得到妥善实施，全球CO排放有可能减少。
