School of Management, Economics and Progress Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, University St., Hengam St., Resalat Square, Tehran, Iran.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Nov 1;845:157182. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157182. Epub 2022 Jul 6.
Despite their acute climatic susceptibility, the hot, arid Middle Eastern countries are among the world's largest energy consumers and emitters of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO). Nonetheless, no study has been conducted to decompose regionally the influential primary factors of the Middle East's carbon emissions. This study utilized the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method to fill this knowledge gap and investigate the driving forces of CO emissions in 12 Middle Eastern countries, namely, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen (1990-2020). The research confirmed that, with a contribution rate of 53.89 %, population growth is the primary driver of CO emissions in the Middle East, followed by energy intensity (31.97 %) and economic growth (18.42 %); and the most straightforward approach to reduce emissions, are boosting energy efficiency and reforming energy subsidies. It also concluded that the West Asian economy is gradually decoupling from CO due to the effective decarbonization of countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, based on the Tapio decoupling model results. Furthermore, each country's future emissions (2020-2026) were projected using a novel group method of data handling (GMDH) approach based on the main identified factors. The countries' decoupling status confirms the accuracy of the projected data on CO emissions growth. The region's CO emissions are expected to rise 13.28 % by 2026, with Syria and Yemen experiencing the most significant increases (129.45 % and 112.14 %, respectively) due to post-civil war economic growth. Other aspects of regional conflicts and migration impacts on the CO emission influencing factors were also explored. Indeed, besides providing a comprehensive analysis of the current and future status of CO emissions in the Middle East, the effects of military conflicts on CO emissions have been investigated using this regional case study for global application.
尽管中东地区气候条件恶劣，但这些炎热干旱的国家却是世界上最大的能源消费国和温室气体排放国，尤其是二氧化碳（CO）。然而，目前还没有研究对中东地区碳排放的主要影响因素进行区域分解。本研究利用对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）方法来填补这一知识空白，并调查 12 个中东国家（巴林、伊朗、伊拉克、约旦、科威特、黎巴嫩、阿曼、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯、叙利亚、阿拉伯联合酋长国和也门）的 CO 排放驱动因素（1990-2020 年）。研究结果证实，人口增长（贡献率为 53.89%）是中东 CO 排放的主要驱动因素，其次是能源强度（31.97%）和经济增长（18.42%）；提高能源效率和改革能源补贴是减少排放的最直接途径。基于 Tapio 脱钩模型的结果，西亚经济由于沙特阿拉伯和科威特等国家的有效脱碳，逐渐与 CO 脱钩。此外，还利用一种新颖的基于主要识别因素的数据处理（GMDH）方法对每个国家未来的排放（2020-2026 年）进行了预测。各国的脱钩状态证实了 CO 排放增长预测数据的准确性。预计该地区的 CO 排放量将在 2026 年增加 13.28%，其中叙利亚和也门的增长最为显著（分别为 129.45%和 112.14%），这是由于战后经济增长所致。还探讨了区域冲突和移民对 CO 排放影响因素的其他方面。事实上，除了对中东地区当前和未来 CO 排放状况进行全面分析外，还利用该区域案例研究对全球 CO 排放进行了军事冲突对 CO 排放影响的研究。
