Ashraf Badar Nadeem, Goodell John W
School of Finance, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China.
College of Business, The University of Akron, Akron, OH 44325, USA.
Financ Res Lett. 2022 Jun;47:102639. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102639. Epub 2021 Dec 21.
Social distancing policies have been criticized for their adverse effect on economies. However, we evidence that while they have a short-run adverse effect, they also have a long-run recovery effect on economic growth. Utilizing quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate data from OECD member states, we find that the medium-term recovery effect of stringent social distancing policies on economic growth is three times higher the short-term adverse effect. We additionally investigate social distancing measures with sub-components of GDP, as well as the conditioning roles of institutional factors.
社交距离政策因其对经济的不利影响而受到批评。然而，我们证明，虽然它们有短期不利影响，但对经济增长也有长期的复苏作用。利用经合组织成员国的季度国内生产总值（GDP）增长率数据，我们发现严格的社交距离政策对经济增长的中期复苏作用是短期不利影响的三倍。我们还研究了社交距离措施对GDP各子成分的影响，以及制度因素的调节作用。
