Assis Talita O, Aguiar Ana Paula D, von Randow Celso, Nobre Carlos A
National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, Brazil.
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm, Sweden.
Sci Adv. 2022 Jun 17;8(24):eabj3309. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abj3309. Epub 2022 Jun 15.
In recent years, the area affected by forest degradation in the Brazilian Amazon has frequently been higher than deforestation. From August 2006 to July 2019, the degraded area totaled 194,058 km, representing almost two times the 99,630 km deforested in the same period. The impacts of degradation include biodiversity loss and changes in the carbon stocks, affecting the CO balance and future climate changes. This paper aims to explore socioeconomic and environmental factors that influence forest degradation, project future scenarios, and assess the impact on the regional carbon balance, combining forest degradation and deforestation-related processes (clear-cut deforestation and secondary vegetation dynamics). We show that, while net CO emissions from 2020 to 2050 are 0.74 Gt CO in the Sustainable scenario, this value reached 22.63 Gt CO in the Fragmentation scenario, an increasingly plausible scenario given the recent trends in the region.
近年来，巴西亚马逊地区森林退化的影响面积经常超过森林砍伐面积。2006年8月至2019年7月，退化面积总计194,058平方千米，几乎是同期99,630平方千米森林砍伐面积的两倍。森林退化的影响包括生物多样性丧失和碳储量变化，影响二氧化碳平衡和未来气候变化。本文旨在探讨影响森林退化的社会经济和环境因素，预测未来情景，并评估对区域碳平衡的影响，同时结合森林退化和与森林砍伐相关的过程（皆伐和次生植被动态）。我们发现，在可持续情景下，2020年至2050年的净二氧化碳排放量为0.74吉吨二氧化碳，但在破碎化情景下，这一数值达到了22.63吉吨二氧化碳，鉴于该地区近期的趋势，这一情景越来越有可能出现。
