Franco Marco A, Rizzo Luciana V, Teixeira Márcio J, Artaxo Paulo, Azevedo Tasso, Lelieveld Jos, Nobre Carlos A, Pöhlker Christopher, Pöschl Ulrich, Shimbo Julia, Xu Xiyan, Machado Luiz A T
Institute of Physics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Nat Commun. 2025 Sep 2;16(1):7944. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-63156-0.
The Amazon rainforest is one of Earth's most diverse ecosystems, playing a key role in maintaining regional and global climate stability. However, recent changes in land use, vegetation, and the climate have disrupted biosphere-atmosphere interactions, leading to significant alterations in the water, energy, and carbon cycles. These disturbances have far-reaching consequences for the entire Earth system. Here, we quantify the relative contributions of deforestation and global climate change to observed shifts in key Amazonian climate parameters. We analyzed long-term atmospheric and land cover change data across 29 areas in the Brazilian Legal Amazon from 1985 to 2020, using parametric statistical models to disentangle the effects of forest loss and alterations of temperature, precipitation, and greenhouse gas mixing ratios. While the rise in atmospheric methane (CH) and carbon dioxide (CO) mixing ratios is primarily driven by global emissions (>99%), deforestation has significantly increased surface air temperatures and reduced precipitation during the Amazonian dry season. Over the past 35 years, deforestation has accounted for approximately 74% of the ~ 21 mm dry season decline and 16.5% of the 2°C rise in maximum surface air temperature. Understanding the interplay between global climate change and deforestation is essential for developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to preserve this vital ecosystem.
亚马逊雨林是地球上最多样化的生态系统之一，在维持区域和全球气候稳定方面发挥着关键作用。然而，近期土地利用、植被和气候的变化扰乱了生物圈与大气的相互作用，导致水、能量和碳循环发生重大改变。这些干扰对整个地球系统产生了深远影响。在此，我们量化了森林砍伐和全球气候变化对亚马逊关键气候参数观测变化的相对贡献。我们分析了1985年至2020年巴西法定亚马逊地区29个区域的长期大气和土地覆盖变化数据，使用参数统计模型来区分森林损失以及温度、降水和温室气体混合比变化的影响。虽然大气中甲烷（CH）和二氧化碳（CO）混合比的上升主要由全球排放驱动（>99%），但森林砍伐显著提高了地表气温，并减少了亚马逊旱季的降水量。在过去35年里，森林砍伐约占旱季降水量减少约21毫米的74%，以及地表最高气温上升2°C的16.5%。了解全球气候变化与森林砍伐之间的相互作用对于制定有效的缓解和适应策略以保护这一重要生态系统至关重要。
