Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Department of Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Department of Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Lancet Planet Health. 2022 Jun;6(6):e461-e474. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00089-4.
There is limited knowledge on the distribution of the health co-benefits of reduced air pollutants and carbon emissions in the transport sector across populations.
This Article describes a health impact assessment used to estimate the health co-benefits of alternative land passenger transport scenarios for the city of Beijing, China, testing the effect of five transport-based scenarios from 2020 to 2050 on health outcomes. New potential scenarios range from implementing a green transport infrastructure, to scenarios primarily based on the electrification of vehicle fleets and a deep decarbonisation scenario with near zero carbon emissions by 2050. The health co-benefits are disaggregated by age and sex and estimated in monetary terms.
The results show that all the alternative mitigation scenarios result in reduced PM and CO emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario during 2020-50. The near zero scenario achieves the largest health co-benefits and economic benefits annually relative to the sole mitigation strategy, preventing 300 (95% CI 229-450) deaths, with health co-benefits and CO cost-saving an equivalent of 0·01% (0·00-0·03%) of Beijing's Gross domestic product in 2015 by 2050. Given Beijing's ageing population and higher mortality rate, individuals aged 50 years and older experience the greatest benefit from the mitigation scenarios. Regarding sex, the greatest health benefits occur in men.
This assessment provides estimates of the demographic distribution of benefits from the effects of combinations of green transport and decarbonising vehicles in transport futures. The results show that there are substantial positive health outcomes from decarbonising transport in Beijing. Policies aimed at encouraging active travel and use of public transport, increasing the safety of active travel, improving public transport infrastructure, and decarbonising vehicles lead to differential benefits. In addition, disaggregation by age and sex shows that the health impacts related to transport pollution disproportionately influence different age cohorts and genders.
National Natural Science Foundation of China and FRIEND Project (through the National Research Foundation of Korea, funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT).
对于减少交通部门空气污染物和碳排放的健康协同效益在不同人群中的分布情况，我们的了解十分有限。
本文介绍了一项健康影响评估，用于估算中国北京市替代陆地客运情景的健康协同效益，测试了 2020 年至 2050 年五种交通情景对健康结果的影响。新的潜在情景范围从实施绿色交通基础设施到主要基于车辆车队电气化以及到 2050 年实现近零碳排放的深度脱碳情景。健康协同效益按年龄和性别进行细分，并以货币形式进行估算。
结果表明，与 2020-50 年的基准情景相比，所有替代缓解情景都导致 PM 和 CO 排放量减少。近零情景相对于单一缓解策略实现了最大的健康协同效益和经济效益，到 2050 年每年可预防 300 人（95%CI 229-450）死亡，到 2050 年，健康协同效益和 CO 成本节约相当于 2015 年北京国内生产总值的 0.01%（0.00-0.03%）。鉴于北京人口老龄化和死亡率较高，50 岁及以上的个人从缓解情景中受益最大。就性别而言，男性的健康效益最大。
这项评估提供了对绿色交通和车辆脱碳组合对未来交通影响的效益的人口分布的估计。结果表明，北京的交通脱碳带来了巨大的积极健康成果。旨在鼓励积极出行和使用公共交通、提高积极出行安全性、改善公共交通基础设施和车辆脱碳的政策会带来不同的效益。此外，按年龄和性别进行细分表明，与交通污染相关的健康影响不成比例地影响不同年龄组和性别。
国家自然科学基金和 FRIEND 项目（通过韩国国家研究基金会，由科学和信息通信技术部资助）。
