Biernacki Szymon, Malarz Krzysztof
Faculty of Physics and Applied Computer Science, AGH University of Science and Technology, al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Kraków, Poland.
Entropy (Basel). 2022 Jun 15;24(6):832. doi: 10.3390/e24060832.
In this paper, we present stochastic synchronous cellular automaton defined on a square lattice. The automaton rules are based on the SEIR (susceptible → exposed → infected → recovered) model with probabilistic parameters gathered from real-world data on human mortality and the characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 disease. With computer simulations, we show the influence of the radius of the neighborhood on the number of infected and deceased agents in the artificial population. The increase in the radius of the neighborhood favors the spread of the pandemic. However, for a large range of interactions of exposed agents (who neither have symptoms of the disease nor have been diagnosed by appropriate tests), even isolation of infected agents cannot prevent successful disease propagation. This supports aggressive testing against disease as one of the useful strategies to prevent large peaks of infection in the spread of SARS-CoV-2-like diseases.
在本文中，我们提出了一种定义在正方形晶格上的随机同步细胞自动机。该自动机规则基于SEIR（易感→潜伏→感染→康复）模型，其概率参数来自关于人类死亡率的真实数据以及新冠病毒疾病的特征。通过计算机模拟，我们展示了邻域半径对人工群体中感染和死亡个体数量的影响。邻域半径的增加有利于疫情的传播。然而，对于潜伏个体（既没有疾病症状也未通过适当检测确诊）的大范围相互作用，即使隔离感染个体也无法阻止疾病的成功传播。这支持了积极的疾病检测作为预防类似新冠病毒疾病传播中感染高峰的有用策略之一。
