Lux Thomas
Department of Economics, University of Kiel, Olshausenstr. 40, 24118 Kiel, Germany.
Physica A. 2021 Apr 1;567:125710. doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2020.125710. Epub 2021 Jan 2.
We add a simple dynamic process for adaptive "social distancing" measures to a standard SIR model of the COVID pandemic. With a limited attention span and in the absence of a consistent long-term strategy against the pandemic, this process leads to a sweeping of an instability, i.e. fluctuations in the effective reproduction number around its bifurcation value of . While mitigating the pandemic in the short-run, this process remains intrinsically fragile and does not constitute a sustainable strategy that societies could follow for an extended period of time.
我们在新冠疫情的标准SIR模型中添加了一个用于适应性“社交距离”措施的简单动态过程。由于注意力持续时间有限且缺乏对抗疫情的一致长期策略，这个过程导致了一种不稳定性的蔓延，即有效繁殖数在其分岔值附近波动。虽然在短期内减轻了疫情，但这个过程本质上仍然脆弱，并不构成社会可以长期遵循的可持续策略。
