Shi Shouyong
Department of Economics, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, K7L 3N6, Canada.
Rev Econ Dyn. 2023 Apr;48:297-319. doi: 10.1016/j.red.2022.06.002. Epub 2022 Jun 17.
This paper studies the equilibrium and the social optimum in an economy where knowledge diffusion interacts with disease transmission. Knowledge increases productivity and is diffused through learning. A learner chooses the intensities in normal learning, isolated learning and production. Normal learning is more effective than isolated learning but requires a learner to contact a teacher. A higher intensity in normal learning increases a learner's contact rate with a teacher, thereby speeding up both knowledge diffusion and the transmission of an infectious pathogen. An infection reduces productivity and possibly results in death. Calibrating the pathogen to Covid-19, the model shows that the unexpected arrival of the pathogen induces a susceptible learner to adjust the normal learning intensity in a V-shaped pattern over time. Aggregate output also follows V-shaped adjustments. Switching from the equilibrium to the social optimum reduces infections and deaths substantially and increases social welfare. I also examine temporary lockdowns in the equilibrium.
本文研究了知识传播与疾病传播相互作用的经济中的均衡和社会最优情况。知识提高了生产力，并通过学习进行传播。学习者选择正常学习、隔离学习和生产的强度。正常学习比隔离学习更有效，但需要学习者与教师接触。正常学习强度的提高会增加学习者与教师的接触率，从而加速知识传播和传染性病原体的传播。感染会降低生产力，并可能导致死亡。将病原体校准为新冠病毒，该模型表明，病原体的意外到来会促使易感学习者随着时间的推移以V形模式调整正常学习强度。总产出也会进行V形调整。从均衡状态转向社会最优状态可大幅减少感染和死亡，并提高社会福利。我还研究了均衡状态下的临时封锁措施。
