Kapička Marek, Rupert Peter
CERGE-EI, a joint workplace of Charles University and the Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Politických vězňů 7, 111 21 Prague, Czech Republic.
University of California, Santa Barbara, Department of Economics, 2127 North Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-9210, USA.
J Econ Theory. 2022 Sep;204:105520. doi: 10.1016/j.jet.2022.105520. Epub 2022 Jul 26.
The COVID-19 pandemic has killed millions across the globe and government responses have led to tens of millions of jobs lost. This paper combines the SIR epidemic model with a frictional labor market to examine the interaction between infection, wages and unemployment. The labor market is not efficient during the pandemic. Optimal policies show that it is often optimal to shut down businesses and impose a quarantine before the pandemic peaks. A quarantine itself is not enough, however, and must be complemented by additional policies. The policies are not unique and include a Pigouvian "infection tax" on those infected, a tax on susceptible individuals, higher unemployment benefits and a tax on vacancy creation. All policies are state dependent and depend both on the number of unemployed and on the number of infected.
新冠疫情已在全球造成数百万人死亡，政府的应对措施导致数千万人失业。本文将SIR传染病模型与摩擦性劳动力市场相结合，以研究感染、工资和失业之间的相互作用。疫情期间劳动力市场效率低下。最优政策表明，在疫情达到峰值之前关闭企业并实施隔离通常是最优的。然而，仅靠隔离是不够的，还必须辅以其他政策。这些政策并非唯一，包括对感染者征收庇古式“感染税”、对易感人群征税、提高失业救济金以及对创造空缺岗位征税。所有政策都取决于具体情况，既取决于失业人数，也取决于感染人数。
