Fastest Path to Zero Initiative, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States of America.
Breakthrough Institute, Oakland, CA, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2022 Jul 6;17(7):e0270155. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270155. eCollection 2022.
The global energy system has a relatively small land footprint at present, comprising just 0.4% of ice-free land. This pales in comparison to agricultural land use- 30-38% of ice-free land-yet future low-carbon energy systems that shift to more extensive technologies could dramatically alter landscapes around the globe. The challenge is more acute given the projected doubling of global energy consumption by 2050 and widespread electrification of transportation and industry. Yet unlike greenhouse gas emissions, land use intensity of energy has been rarely studied in a rigorous way. Here we calculate land-use intensity of energy (LUIE) for real-world sites across all major sources of electricity, integrating data from published literature, databases, and original data collection. We find a range of LUIE that span four orders of magnitude, from nuclear with 7.1 ha/TWh/y to dedicated biomass at 58,000 ha/TWh/y. By applying these LUIE results to the future electricity portfolios of ten energy scenarios, we conclude that land use could become a significant constraint on deep decarbonization of the power system, yet low-carbon, land-efficient options are available.
目前，全球能源系统的土地足迹相对较小，仅占无冰土地的 0.4%。这与农业用地（无冰土地的 30-38%）相比相形见绌，但未来转向更广泛技术的低碳能源系统可能会极大地改变全球各地的景观。鉴于到 2050 年全球能源消耗预计将翻一番，以及交通运输和工业的广泛电气化，这一挑战更加严峻。然而，与温室气体排放不同，能源的土地利用强度很少以严格的方式进行研究。在这里，我们通过整合来自已发表文献、数据库和原始数据收集的数据，为所有主要电力来源的实际地点计算了能源的土地利用强度（LUIE）。我们发现，能源的土地利用强度范围跨越四个数量级，从核能的 7.1 公顷/太瓦时/年到专用生物质能的 58,000 公顷/太瓦时/年。通过将这些 LUIE 结果应用于十个能源情景的未来电力组合，我们得出结论，土地利用可能成为电力系统深度脱碳的一个重大制约因素，但存在低碳、高效利用土地的选择。
