Oakleaf James R, Kennedy Christina M, Baruch-Mordo Sharon, West Paul C, Gerber James S, Jarvis Larissa, Kiesecker Joseph
The Nature Conservancy, Development by Design Program, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2015 Oct 7;10(10):e0138334. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0138334. eCollection 2015.
A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.
预计不断增长且日益富裕的人口将增加对资源的需求，并加速栖息地改造，但其增长幅度和具体地点仍不明朗。在此，我们预测并汇总了预期的城市和农业扩张、常规和非常规油气、煤炭、太阳能、风能、生物燃料以及矿业开发的全球空间格局。总体而言，这些威胁使全球剩余20%的自然土地（1968万平方千米）面临风险，并可能导致世界上一半的生物群落转化面积超过50%，而南美洲和非洲的土地转化面积将分别翻倍和增至三倍。在区域层面，南美洲南部和西部、非洲中部和东部以及北美洲落基山脉中部的土地转化情况可能会发生显著变化。由于地球上仅有5%面临风险的自然土地受到严格法律保护，因此评估并积极减轻多部门开发风险对于减少自然环境的进一步大幅损失至关重要。
