Mignone Bryan K, Clarke Leon, Edmonds James A, Gurgel Angelo, Herzog Howard J, Johnson Jeremiah X, Mallapragada Dharik S, McJeon Haewon, Morris Jennifer, O'Rourke Patrick R, Paltsev Sergey, Rose Steven K, Steinberg Daniel C, Venkatesh Aranya
ExxonMobil Technology and Engineering Company, Annandale, NJ, USA.
Bezos Earth Fund, Washington, DC, USA.
Nat Commun. 2024 May 10;15(1):3938. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-47059-0.
Energy transition scenarios are characterized by increasing electrification and improving efficiency of energy end uses, rapid decarbonization of the electric power sector, and deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to offset remaining emissions. Although hydrocarbon fuels typically decline in such scenarios, significant volumes remain in many scenarios even at the time of net-zero emissions. While scenarios rely on different approaches for decarbonizing remaining fuels, the underlying drivers for these differences are unclear. Here we develop several illustrative net-zero systems in a simple structural energy model and show that, for a given set of final energy demands, assumptions about the use of biomass and CO sequestration drive key differences in how emissions from remaining fuels are mitigated. Limiting one resource may increase reliance on another, implying that decisions about using or restricting resources in pursuit of net-zero objectives could have significant tradeoffs that will need to be evaluated and managed.
能源转型情景的特点是电气化程度不断提高、能源终端使用效率不断提升、电力部门迅速脱碳，以及部署二氧化碳去除（CDR）技术以抵消剩余排放。尽管在这些情景中碳氢化合物燃料通常会减少，但即使在净零排放时，许多情景中仍会有大量此类燃料留存。虽然不同情景依靠不同方法使剩余燃料脱碳，但造成这些差异的根本驱动因素尚不清楚。在此，我们在一个简单的结构化能源模型中开发了几个说明性的净零系统，并表明，对于给定的一组最终能源需求，关于生物质使用和碳封存的假设驱动了在减轻剩余燃料排放方式上的关键差异。限制一种资源可能会增加对另一种资源的依赖，这意味着为实现净零目标而使用或限制资源的决策可能会带来重大权衡，需要对此进行评估和管理。
