Gong Xiujuan, Liu Shu, Ye Wei, Liu Liang
School of Environment and Resource, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, 621010, China.
School of Economics and Management, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, 621010, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 1;15(1):21186. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-06042-5.
As the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) continues its rapid economic expansion, the mismatch between the supply and demand of industrial water resources has become increasingly pronounced. While existing research has largely overlooked the decoupling dynamics between industrial water consumption and economic expansion in this region, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of its decoupling relationship, the stability, and the underlying driving forces. Drawing on data from 11 provinces and municipalities in the YREB spanning the 11th to 13th Five-Year Plan (FYP) periods, this study employs the Tapio decoupling model and the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) model as its primary analytical tools. Through comparative analysis, the results reveal that the YREB's overall decoupling status evolved from weak decoupling in the 11th FYP period to strong decoupling in the 12th and 13th periods, though marked regional disparities persist. Notably, all provinces exhibited some degree of decoupling reversal, primarily during plan transitions, the mid-term of the 12th FYP, or around 2019. This underscores the non-linear and dynamic nature of the decoupling process. In terms of driving factors, during the 11th and 12th FYP periods, the technological effect was the dominant force curbing industrial water consumption, while the output effect was the main contributor to its increase. The interplay between these opposing forces led to fluctuations in the total water consumption effect. However, by the 13th FYP period, structural effect emerged as a significant new restraining force. This study contributes empirical evidence and policy-oriented insights to improve sustainable industrial water management in major river basin economies.
随着长江经济带经济的快速扩张，工业水资源供需不匹配问题日益凸显。现有研究很大程度上忽略了该地区工业用水与经济扩张之间的脱钩动态，本研究全面分析了其脱钩关系、稳定性及潜在驱动因素。本研究利用长江经济带11个省直辖市在“十一五”至“十三五”期间的数据，采用Tapio脱钩模型和对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）模型作为主要分析工具。通过比较分析，结果显示长江经济带的整体脱钩状态从“十一五”期间的弱脱钩演变为“十二五”和“十三五”期间的强脱钩，不过区域差异依然显著。值得注意的是，所有省份都出现了一定程度的脱钩逆转，主要发生在规划过渡期、“十二五”中期或2019年左右。这凸显了脱钩过程的非线性和动态性。在驱动因素方面，“十一五”和“十二五”期间，技术效应是抑制工业用水的主导力量，而产出效应是工业用水增加的主要原因。这两种相反力量的相互作用导致总用水效应出现波动。然而，到“十三五”期间，结构效应成为新的重要抑制力量。本研究为改善主要流域经济体的可持续工业用水管理提供了实证依据和政策导向性见解。
