Bhardwaj Rajneesh, Agrawal Amit
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, 400076 India.
Trans Indian Natl Acad Eng. 2021;6(3):869-875. doi: 10.1007/s41403-021-00248-5. Epub 2021 Jun 28.
We analyse the evolution of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in several countries by using a logistic model. The model uses a regression analysis based on the least-squares fitting. In particular, the growth rate of the infection has been fitted as an exponential increase, as compared to a power law increase, reported previously in logistic models. The data shows that the increase in the exponent of the exponential increase is around 0.03 day , with a standard deviation of 0.01 day . The present results suggest that duration of the peaking of the second wave is almost same for several countries considered. The growth rate is also on the same order of several countries regardless of the total number of infections in a particular country. Since the decay of the growth rate is self-similar to that during the increase in the second wave of several countries, we can predict the end of the second wave in India. The model suggests that the second wave will end in the first week of August 2021, with a growth rate of 0.1% day at that time.
我们通过使用逻辑模型分析了几个国家新冠疫情第二波的演变情况。该模型采用基于最小二乘法拟合的回归分析。特别是，与之前逻辑模型中报道的幂律增长相比，感染增长率已被拟合为指数增长。数据显示，指数增长的指数增加约为0.03天⁻¹，标准差为0.01天⁻¹。目前的结果表明，所考虑的几个国家第二波峰值的持续时间几乎相同。无论特定国家的感染总数如何，几个国家的增长率也处于同一量级。由于增长率的衰减与几个国家第二波增长期间的衰减自相似，我们可以预测印度第二波疫情的结束时间。该模型表明，第二波疫情将于2021年8月的第一周结束，届时增长率为0.1%天⁻¹。
