Sharma Aryan, Sapkal Srujan, Verma Mahendra K
Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur, 208016 India.
Department of Materials Engineering, Defence Institute of Advanced Technology, Pune, 411025 India.
Trans Indian Natl Acad Eng. 2021;6(2):405-413. doi: 10.1007/s41403-021-00210-5. Epub 2021 Feb 27.
We construct a universal epidemic curve for COVID-19 using the epidemic curves of eight nations that have reached saturation for the first phase and then fit an eight-degree polynomial that passes through the universal curve. We take India's epidemic curve up to January 1, 2021 and match it with the universal curve by minimizing square-root error between the model prediction and actual value. The constructed curve has been used to forecast epidemic evolution up to February 25, 2021. The predictions of our model and those of supermodel for India (Agrawal et al. in Indian J Med Res, 2020; Vidyasagar et al. in https://www.iith.ac.in/~m_vidyasagar/arXiv/Super-Model.pdf, 2020) are reasonably close to each other considering the uncertainties in data fitting.
我们利用八个已在第一阶段达到饱和状态的国家的疫情曲线构建了一条新冠肺炎通用疫情曲线，然后拟合了一条通过该通用曲线的八次多项式。我们获取了截至2021年1月1日的印度疫情曲线，并通过最小化模型预测值与实际值之间的平方根误差，将其与通用曲线进行匹配。所构建的曲线已被用于预测截至2021年2月25日的疫情演变。考虑到数据拟合中的不确定性，我们模型的预测结果与印度超级模型（阿格拉瓦尔等人，《印度医学研究杂志》，2020年；维迪亚萨加尔等人，https://www.iith.ac.in/~m_vidyasagar/arXiv/Super-Model.pdf，2020年）的预测结果相当接近。
