Research Coordinator, Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, Canadian Centre for Health Economics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON.
Professor, Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, Canadian Centre for Health Economics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON.
Healthc Policy. 2022 Jun;17(SP):91-106. doi: 10.12927/hcpol.2022.26852.
This paper presents a forecasting model for personal support workers (PSWs) and nurses (registered nurses [RNs] and registered practical nurses [RPNs]) for Ontario's long-term care (LTC) sector. In the base-case scenario, the model projects a shortfall in the supply of full-time equivalent (FTE) workers required to meet the expected demand for care for all workers by 2035, which would require an estimated increase of 11,632 FTE PSWs, 6,031 FTE RNs and 10,178 FTE RPNs entering the market by 2035. The results of this paper may have important implications for health human resources policy planning in Ontario's LTC sector.
本文为安大略省长期护理（LTC）部门的个人支持工作者（PSWs）和护士（注册护士[RNs]和注册实习护士[RPNs]）提供了一个预测模型。在基本情况下，该模型预计到 2035 年，全职等效（FTE）工人的供应将出现短缺，无法满足所有工人对护理的预期需求，这将需要估计有 11632 名 FTE PSWs、6031 名 FTE RNs 和 10178 名 FTE RPNs 在 2035 年前进入市场。本文的结果可能对安大略省 LTC 部门的卫生人力资源政策规划具有重要意义。
