School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Epidemiol Infect. 2022 Jul 20;150:e145. doi: 10.1017/S0950268822001285.
This paper uses a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis to assess the spatial growth rate of multiple lineages of SARS-CoV-2 in the local authority areas of England, September 2020-December 2021. Using the genomic surveillance records of the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, the analysis identifies a substantial (7.6-fold) difference in the average rate of spatial growth of 37 sample lineages, from the slowest (Delta AY.4.3) to the fastest (Omicron BA.1). Spatial growth of the Omicron (B.1.1.529 and BA) variant was found to be 2.81× faster than the Delta (B.1.617.2 and AY) variant and 3.76× faster than the Alpha (B.1.1.7 and Q) variant. In addition to AY.4.2 (a designated variant under investigation, VUI-21OCT-01), three Delta sublineages (AY.43, AY.98 and AY.120) were found to display a statistically faster rate of spatial growth than the parent lineage and would seem to merit further investigation. We suggest that the monitoring of spatial growth rates is a potentially valuable adjunct to outbreak response procedures for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in a defined population.
本文使用稳健的空间流行病学分析方法，评估了 2020 年 9 月至 2021 年 12 月期间英格兰地方当局中 SARS-CoV-2 的多个谱系的空间增长率。利用 COVID-19 基因组英国（COG-UK）联盟的基因组监测记录，该分析确定了 37 个样本谱系的平均空间增长率存在显著差异（7.6 倍），从最慢的（Delta AY.4.3）到最快的（Omicron BA.1）。发现 Omicron（B.1.1.529 和 BA）变体的空间增长率比 Delta（B.1.617.2 和 AY）变体快 2.81 倍，比 Alpha（B.1.1.7 和 Q）变体快 3.76 倍。除了 AY.4.2（一种指定的调查变体，VUI-21OCT-01）外，还发现三个 Delta 亚谱系（AY.43、AY.98 和 AY.120）的空间增长率比母谱系更快，似乎值得进一步调查。我们建议，监测空间增长率是对特定人群中新兴 SARS-CoV-2 变体的爆发应对程序的一种潜在有价值的补充。
