UniSA Business School, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
PLoS One. 2022 Jul 22;17(7):e0271586. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0271586. eCollection 2022.
This paper investigates the determinants of COVID-19 infection in the first 100 days of government actions. Using a debiased LASSO estimator, we explore how different measures of government nonpharmaceutical interventions affect new infections of COVID-19 for 37 lower and middle-income countries (LMCs). We find that closing schools, stay-at-home restrictions, and contact tracing reduce the growth of new infections, as do economic support to households and the number of health care workers. Notably, we find no significant effects of business closures. Finally, infections become higher in countries with greater income inequality, higher tourist inflows, poorly educated adults, and weak governance quality. We conclude that several policy interventions reduce infection rates for poorer countries. Further, economic and institutional factors are important; thereby justifying the use, and ultimately success, of economic support to households during the initial infection period.
本文研究了政府采取行动的前 100 天中 COVID-19 感染的决定因素。使用无偏最小角回归(LASSO)估计器，我们探讨了不同的政府非药物干预措施如何影响 37 个中低收入国家（LMC）的 COVID-19 新感染。我们发现，关闭学校、居家限制和接触者追踪措施可减少新感染的增长，对家庭的经济支持和卫生工作者人数也有减少作用。值得注意的是，我们没有发现企业关闭有显著影响。最后，收入不平等程度较高、旅游流入量较大、成年人受教育程度较低以及治理质量较差的国家感染率更高。我们的结论是，一些政策干预措施降低了较贫穷国家的感染率。此外，经济和制度因素也很重要；因此，在初始感染期间向家庭提供经济支持是合理的，最终也是成功的。
