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从传播视角看人口流动与可持续经济增长的研究

Research on Population Mobility and Sustainable Economic Growth From a Communication Perspective.

作者信息

Yao Yizhong, Liu Lei

机构信息

College of Economics and Management, Shihezi University, Shihezi, China.

出版信息

Front Psychol. 2022 Jul 7;13:935606. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2022.935606. eCollection 2022.

DOI:10.3389/fpsyg.2022.935606
PMID:35874350
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9301274/
Abstract

As the global economy begins to recover, tremendous efforts will be needed to build back better to ensure decent, fulfilling, and secure work for all within an environmentally sustainable economy. Based on the perspective of communication science, this paper first constructed a comprehensive evaluation system of regional economic sustainable development indicators. Next, the least square regression model, spatial effect regression model, and two-way fixed effect regression model are used to analyze the panel data in 34 provinces and cities in China. This paper makes a detailed study on how population flow and agglomeration affect economic growth and sustainable economic development. The experiment result shows that: (1) the impact of population agglomeration on sustainable economic growth has an "inverted U" non-linear characteristic. (2) Population agglomeration promotes sustainable economic development by improving the urbanization rate. Furthermore, based on the VAR model, Granger causality analysis and co-integration technique are used to study the quantitative interaction between population growth rate and economic development level in China. The result indicates that (at the 5%-level significance): (1) in the short-term, the population growth rate has no significant effect on the economic development, while the economic development level has a significant effect on the population growth rate; (2) there is a significant negative correlation between population growth rate and economic development level in the long run.

摘要

随着全球经济开始复苏,需要付出巨大努力来实现更好的重建,以确保在环境可持续的经济中为所有人提供体面、充实和有保障的工作。基于传播学视角,本文首先构建了区域经济可持续发展指标综合评价体系。接下来,运用最小二乘回归模型、空间效应回归模型和双向固定效应回归模型对中国34个省市的面板数据进行分析。本文详细研究了人口流动与集聚如何影响经济增长和经济可持续发展。实验结果表明:(1)人口集聚对经济可持续增长的影响具有“倒U”型非线性特征。(2)人口集聚通过提高城市化率促进经济可持续发展。此外,基于向量自回归(VAR)模型,运用格兰杰因果分析和协整技术研究中国人口增长率与经济发展水平之间的定量互动关系。结果表明(在5%的显著性水平下):(1)短期内,人口增长率对经济发展无显著影响,而经济发展水平对人口增长率有显著影响;(2)从长期来看,人口增长率与经济发展水平存在显著负相关关系。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/667a/9301274/c13284433584/fpsyg-13-935606-g0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/667a/9301274/42d347f359b8/fpsyg-13-935606-g0001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/667a/9301274/c13284433584/fpsyg-13-935606-g0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/667a/9301274/42d347f359b8/fpsyg-13-935606-g0001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/667a/9301274/c13284433584/fpsyg-13-935606-g0002.jpg

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