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印度尼西亚万隆市年龄结构登革热传播模型中随时间变化的感染力和有效繁殖率

Time-dependent force of infection and effective reproduction ratio in an age-structure dengue transmission model in Bandung City, Indonesia.

作者信息

Puspita Juni Wijayanti, Fakhruddin Muhammad, Nuraini Nuning, Soewono Edy

机构信息

Doctoral Program of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesha, 10, Bandung, 40132, Jawa Barat, Indonesia.

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Military Mathematics and Natural Sciences, The Republic of Indonesia Defense University, IPSC Area, Sentul, Bogor, 16810, Indonesia.

出版信息

Infect Dis Model. 2022 Jul 11;7(3):430-447. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2022.07.001. eCollection 2022 Sep.

DOI:10.1016/j.idm.2022.07.001
PMID:35891623
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9294205/
Abstract

Dengue virus infection is a leading health problem in many endemic countries, including Indonesia, characterized by high morbidity and wide spread. It is known that the risk factors that influence the transmission intensity vary among different age groups, which can have implications for dengue control strategies. A time-dependent four - age structure model of dengue transmission was constructed in this study. A vaccination scenario as control strategy was also applied to one of the age groups. Daily incidence data of dengue cases from Santo Borromeus Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia, from 2014 to 2016 was used to estimate the infection rate. We used two indicators to identify the changes in dengue transmission intensity for this period in each age group: the annual force of infection (FoI) and the effective reproduction ratio based on a time-dependent transmission rate. The results showed that the yearly FoI of children (age 0-4 years) increased significantly from 2014 to 2015, at 10.08%. Overall, the highest FoI before and after vaccination occurred in youngsters (age 5-14 years), with a FoI of about 6% per year. In addition, based on the daily effective reproduction ratio, it was found that vaccination of youngsters could reduce the number of dengue cases in Bandung city faster than vaccination of children.

摘要

登革热病毒感染是包括印度尼西亚在内的许多流行国家的主要健康问题，其特点是发病率高且传播广泛。众所周知，影响传播强度的风险因素在不同年龄组中有所不同，这可能对登革热控制策略产生影响。本研究构建了一个登革热传播的时间依赖性四年龄结构模型。还将疫苗接种方案作为控制策略应用于其中一个年龄组。使用了印度尼西亚万隆圣博罗梅乌斯医院2014年至2016年登革热病例的每日发病率数据来估计感染率。我们使用两个指标来确定每个年龄组在此期间登革热传播强度的变化：年度感染力（FoI）和基于时间依赖性传播率的有效繁殖率。结果表明，儿童（0 - 4岁）的年度FoI从2014年到2015年显著增加，增幅为10.08%。总体而言，接种疫苗前后最高的FoI出现在青少年（5 - 14岁）中，每年约为6%。此外，基于每日有效繁殖率发现，对青少年进行疫苗接种比给儿童接种疫苗能更快地减少万隆市的登革热病例数量。

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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1024/9294205/608f398caca6/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1024/9294205/f1828ad4357b/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1024/9294205/4d742cb8b201/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1024/9294205/3eca36ab8905/gr4.jpg
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