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基于认知的登革热传播动力学建模与最优控制分析

Modeling the Dynamics of Dengue Transmission with Awareness and Optimal Control Analysis.

作者信息

Herdicho Faishal F, Fatmawati F, Alfiniyah Cicik, Fajrin Farah P, Bonyah Ebenezer, Rois Muhammad A, Peter Olumuyiwa J

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, Indonesia.

Department of Mathematics Education, Faculty of Applied Sciences and Mathematics Education, Akenten Appiah Menka University of Skills Training and Entrepreneurial Development, Kumasi, Ghana.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2025 May 22;20(5):e0322702. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0322702. eCollection 2025.

Abstract

Dengue fever is a vector-borne disease which is transmitted by the bites of mosquitoes infected with dengue viruses. This disease is spread around the world and still as a global health problem. In this work, we formulate the dengue model by considering the population of aware humans. The real data of dengue infection in East Java, Indonesia is employed to estimate the parameters of the dengue model. The estimation of parameters is done by using monthly cumulative data on humans infected dengue that recorded at East Java Health Office on 2018-2020. We then analyze the stability of the equilibria of the model. The analysis exhibits that the disease-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one. We utilize the Lyapunov function approach to guarantee that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable whenever the reproduction number is greater than one. Furthermore, this work examines the effectiveness of various dengue control strategies, including vector control, awareness program, and prevention. Cost-effectiveness evaluation has shown that the combination of vector control, awareness programs, and awareness prevention is the most effective intervention to reduce the dengue fever in the community.

摘要

登革热是一种媒介传播疾病,通过感染登革病毒的蚊子叮咬传播。这种疾病在全球范围内传播,仍然是一个全球健康问题。在这项工作中,我们通过考虑有认知的人类群体来构建登革热模型。采用印度尼西亚东爪哇登革热感染的实际数据来估计登革热模型的参数。参数估计是利用2018 - 2020年在东爪哇卫生局记录的人类感染登革热的月度累计数据进行的。然后我们分析了模型平衡点的稳定性。分析表明,当基本再生数小于1时,无病平衡点是局部和全局渐近稳定的。我们利用李雅普诺夫函数方法来确保当再生数大于1时,地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的。此外,这项工作考察了各种登革热控制策略的有效性,包括媒介控制、宣传项目和预防措施。成本效益评估表明,媒介控制、宣传项目和预防措施相结合是减少社区登革热的最有效干预措施。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/49ca/12097629/e7510afeda12/pone.0322702.g001.jpg

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