University of Waterloo.
Psychol Sci. 2011 Jun;22(6):707-11. doi: 10.1177/0956797611407933. Epub 2011 May 6.
Probability matching is the tendency to match choice probabilities to outcome probabilities in a binary prediction task. This tendency is a long-standing puzzle in the study of decision making under risk and uncertainty, because always predicting the more probable outcome across a series of trials (maximizing) would yield greater predictive accuracy and payoffs. In three experiments, we tied the predominance of probability matching over maximizing to a generally adaptive cognitive operation that generates expectations regarding the aggregate outcomes of an upcoming sequence of events. Under conditions designed to diminish the generation or perceived applicability of such expectations, we found that the frequency of probability-matching behavior dropped substantially and maximizing became the norm.
概率匹配是指在二项预测任务中，使选择概率与结果概率相匹配的趋势。这种趋势是风险和不确定性下决策研究中的一个长期存在的难题，因为在一系列试验中总是预测更可能的结果（最大化）会产生更高的预测准确性和收益。在三项实验中，我们将概率匹配超过最大化的优势与一种普遍的适应性认知操作联系起来，这种操作产生了对即将到来的一系列事件的总体结果的预期。在设计条件下，减少这种预期的产生或感知适用性，我们发现概率匹配行为的频率大幅下降，最大化成为常态。
