Community Health Research Division, RTI International, Chicago, IL, USA.
Community Health Research Division, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.
Addiction. 2023 Jan;118(1):48-60. doi: 10.1111/add.16018. Epub 2022 Aug 17.
Alcohol consumption increased in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Alcohol use disorder (AUD) and risky drinking are linked to harmful health effects. This paper aimed to project future health and cost impacts of shifts in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic.
An individual-level simulation model of the long-term drinking patterns for people with life-time AUD was used to simulate 10 000 individuals and project model outcomes to the estimated 25.9 million current drinkers with life-time AUD in the United States. The model considered three scenarios: (1) no change (counterfactual for comparison); (2) increased drinking levels persist for 1 year ('increase-1') and (3) increased drinking levels persist for 5 years ('increase-5').
United States.
Current drinkers with life-time AUD.
Life expectancy [life-years (LYs)], quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), alcohol-related hospitalizations and associated hospitalization costs and alcohol-related deaths, during a 5-year period.
Short-term increases in alcohol consumption (increase-1 scenario) resulted in a loss of 79 000 [95% uncertainty interval (UI]) 26 000-201 000] LYs, a loss of 332 000 (104 000-604 000) QALYs and 295 000 (82 000-501 000) more alcohol-related hospitalizations, costing an additional $5.4 billion ($1.5-9.3 billion) over 5 years. Hospitalizations for cirrhosis of the liver accounted for approximately $3.0 billion ($0.9-4.8 billion) in hospitalization costs, more than half the increase across all alcohol-related conditions. Health and cost impacts were more pronounced for older age groups (51+), women and non-Hispanic black individuals. Increasing the duration of pandemic-driven increases in alcohol consumption in the increase-5 scenario resulted in larger impacts.
Simulations show that if the increase in alcohol consumption observed in the United States in the first year of the pandemic continues, alcohol-related mortality, morbidity and associated costs will increase substantially over the next 5 years.
在美国，COVID-19 大流行的早期阶段，酒精消费有所增加。酒精使用障碍（AUD）和危险饮酒与有害健康后果有关。本文旨在预测 COVID-19 大流行期间酒精消费变化对未来健康和成本的影响。
使用终生 AUD 患者长期饮酒模式的个体水平模拟模型，模拟 10000 名个体，并将模型结果预测到美国目前 2590 万终生 AUD 饮酒者。该模型考虑了三种情况：（1）无变化（对照比较）；（2）饮酒水平持续增加 1 年（“增加 1 年”）；（3）饮酒水平持续增加 5 年（“增加 5 年”）。
美国。
目前有终生 AUD 的饮酒者。
在 5 年内的预期寿命[寿命年（LYs）]、质量调整寿命年（QALYs）、与酒精相关的住院治疗及其相关住院费用和与酒精相关的死亡。
短期酒精消费增加（增加 1 年情景）导致 79000 人死亡[95%不确定区间（UI）26000-201000] LYs、332000 人死亡（104000-604000） QALYs 和 295000 人死亡（82000-501000）更多与酒精相关的住院治疗，在 5 年内额外增加 54 亿美元（15 亿至 93 亿美元）的费用。肝硬化相关住院费用约占 30 亿美元（9 亿至 48 亿美元），占所有与酒精相关疾病费用增加的一半以上。对于年龄较大的年龄组（51 岁以上）、女性和非西班牙裔黑人个体，健康和成本影响更为明显。在增加 5 年情景中，大流行驱动的酒精消费增加的持续时间增加，导致影响更大。
模拟结果表明，如果美国在大流行的第一年观察到的酒精消费增加持续下去，未来 5 年内，与酒精相关的死亡率、发病率和相关成本将大幅增加。
