Department of Industrial and Systems EngineeringGeorgia Institute of TechnologyAtlantaGeorgiaUSA.
Institute for Technology AssessmentMassachusetts General HospitalBostonMassachusettsUSA.
Hepatology. 2022 Jun;75(6):1480-1490. doi: 10.1002/hep.32272. Epub 2022 Jan 24.
Alcohol consumption increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in the United States. We projected the effect of increased alcohol consumption on alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) and mortality.
We extended a previously validated microsimulation model that estimated the short- and long-term effect of increased drinking during the COVID-19 pandemic in individuals in the United States born between 1920 and 2012. We modeled short- and long-term outcomes of current drinking patterns during COVID-19 (status quo) using survey data of changes in alcohol consumption in a nationally representative sample between February and November 2020. We compared these outcomes with a counterfactual scenario wherein no COVID-19 occurs and drinking patterns do not change. One-year increase in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to result in 8000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7500-8600) additional ALD-related deaths, 18,700 (95% UI, 17,600-19,900) cases of decompensated cirrhosis, and 1000 (95% UI, 1000-1100) cases of HCC, and 8.9 million disability-adjusted life years between 2020 and 2040. Between 2020 and 2023, alcohol consumption changes due to COVID-19 will lead to 100 (100-200) additional deaths and 2800 (2700-2900) additional decompensated cirrhosis cases. A sustained increase in alcohol consumption for more than 1 year could result in additional morbidity and mortality.
A short-term increase in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic can substantially increase long-term ALD-related morbidity and mortality. Our findings highlight the need for individuals and policymakers to make informed decisions to mitigate the impact of high-risk alcohol drinking in the United States.
2020 年美国 COVID-19 大流行期间，酒精消费增加。我们预测了酒精消费增加对酒精性肝病（ALD）和死亡率的影响。
我们扩展了一个先前经过验证的微模拟模型，该模型估计了 2020 年 2 月至 11 月期间，在美国出生于 1920 年至 1920 年期间的个人 COVID-19 期间饮酒量增加的短期和长期影响。我们使用全国代表性样本中酒精消费变化的调查数据，对 COVID-19 期间（现状）的当前饮酒模式的短期和长期结果进行建模。我们将这些结果与一个反事实情景进行了比较，在该情景中，COVID-19 不会发生，饮酒模式也不会改变。在 COVID-19 大流行期间，酒精消费增加一年预计将导致 8000 例（95%置信区间[UI]，7500-8600 例）与 ALD 相关的死亡，18700 例（95%UI，17600-19900 例）失代偿性肝硬化和 1000 例（95%UI，1000-1100 例）肝癌病例，以及 2020 年至 2040 年期间 890 万残疾调整生命年。2020 年至 2023 年，由于 COVID-19 导致的酒精消费变化将导致 100 例（100-200 例）额外死亡和 2800 例（2700-2900 例）额外失代偿性肝硬化病例。超过 1 年的酒精消费持续增加可能会导致额外的发病率和死亡率。
COVID-19 大流行期间酒精消费的短期增加会大大增加长期 ALD 相关的发病率和死亡率。我们的研究结果强调了个人和政策制定者做出明智决策的必要性，以减轻美国高危饮酒的影响。
