Chen Sujuan, Dong Hang, Li Mengmeng, Huang Lin, Lin Guozhen, Liu Qiyong, Wang Boguang, Yang Jun
Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China.
Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China.
China CDC Wkly. 2022 Jul 1;4(26):570-576. doi: 10.46234/ccdcw2022.124.
There is a large body of epidemiological evidence showing significantly increased mortality risks from air pollution and temperature. However, findings on the modification of the association between air pollution and mortality by temperature are mixed.
We used a varying coefficient distributed lag model to assess the complex interplay between air temperature and PM on daily mortality in Guangzhou City from 2013 to 2020, with the aim of establishing the PM-mortality association at different temperatures and exploring synergetic mortality risks from PM and temperature on vulnerable populations.
We observed near-linear concentration-response associations between PM and mortality across different temperature levels. Each 10 μg/m³ increase of PM in low, medium, and high temperature strata was associated with increments of 0.73% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.38%, 1.09%], 0.12% (95% CI: -0.27%, 0.52%), and 0.46% (95% CI: 0.11%, 0.81%) in non-accidental mortality, with a statistically significant difference between low and medium temperatures (=0.02). There were significant modification effects of PM by low temperature for cardiovascular mortality and among individuals 75 years or older.
Low temperatures may exacerbate physiological responses to short-term PM exposure in Guangzhou, China.
大量流行病学证据表明，空气污染和气温会显著增加死亡风险。然而，关于气温对空气污染与死亡率之间关联的影响，研究结果并不一致。
我们使用可变系数分布滞后模型，评估2013年至2020年广州市气温与细颗粒物（PM）对每日死亡率的复杂相互作用，目的是确定不同温度下PM与死亡率的关联，并探讨PM和温度对脆弱人群的协同死亡风险。
我们观察到不同温度水平下PM与死亡率之间存在近似线性的浓度-反应关系。在低、中、高温层中，PM每增加10μg/m³，非意外死亡率分别增加0.73%[95%置信区间（CI）：0.38%，1.09%]、0.12%（95%CI：-0.27%，0.52%）和0.46%（95%CI：0.11%，0.81%），低温和中温之间存在统计学显著差异（P=0.02）。低温对心血管死亡率以及75岁及以上个体的PM有显著的修正作用。
在中国广州，低温可能会加剧短期PM暴露对生理的影响。
