SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Potential and Policy Changes in South Carolina, February 2020 - January 2021.

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to examine how public health policies influenced the dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) time-varying reproductive number ( ) in South Carolina from February 26, 2020, to January 1, 2021.

METHODS

COVID-19 case series (March 6, 2020, to January 10, 2021) were shifted by 9 d to approximate the infection date. We analyzed the effects of state and county policies on using EpiEstim. We performed linear regression to evaluate if per-capita cumulative case count varies across counties with different population size.

RESULTS

shifted from 2-3 in March to <1 during April and May. rose over the summer and stayed between 1.4 and 0.7. The introduction of statewide mask mandates was associated with a decline in (-15.3%; 95% CrI, -13.6%, -16.8%), and school re-opening, an increase by 12.3% (95% CrI, 10.1%, 14.4%). Less densely populated counties had higher attack rates ( < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The dynamics over time indicated that public health interventions substantially slowed COVID-19 transmission in South Carolina, while their relaxation may have promoted further transmission. Policies encouraging people to stay home, such as closing nonessential businesses, were associated with reduction, while policies that encouraged more movement, such as re-opening schools, were associated with increase.