School of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China.
School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Jul 29;19(15):9323. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19159323.
At present, COVID-19 is still spreading, and its transmission patterns and the main factors that affect transmission behavior still need to be thoroughly explored. To this end, this study collected the cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China by 8 April 2020. Firstly, the spatial characteristics of the COVID-19 transmission were investigated by the spatial autocorrelation method. Then, the factors affecting the COVID-19 incidence rates were analyzed by the generalized linear mixed effect model (GLMMs) and geographically weighted regression model (GWR). Finally, the geological detector (GeoDetector) was introduced to explore the influence of interactive effects between factors on the COVID-19 incidence rates. The results showed that: (1) COVID-19 had obvious spatial aggregation. (2) The control measures had the largest impact on the COVID-19 incidence rates, which can explain the difference of 34.2% in the COVID-19 incidence rates, while meteorological factors and pollutant factors can only explain the difference of 1% in the COVID-19 incidence rates. It explains that some of the literature overestimates the impact of meteorological factors on the spread of the epidemic. (3) The influence of meteorological factors was stronger than that of air pollution factors, and the interactive effects between factors were stronger than their individual effects. The interaction between relative humidity and NO was stronger. The results of this study will provide a reference for further prevention and control of COVID-19.
目前，COVID-19 仍在传播，其传播模式和主要影响传播行为的因素仍需深入探讨。为此，本研究收集了截至 2020 年 4 月 8 日中国累计确诊的 COVID-19 病例数据。首先，采用空间自相关方法研究 COVID-19 的空间传播特征。然后，采用广义线性混合效应模型（GLMMs）和地理加权回归模型（GWR）分析影响 COVID-19 发病率的因素。最后，引入地质探测器（GeoDetector）探讨因素之间的交互作用对 COVID-19 发病率的影响。结果表明：（1）COVID-19 具有明显的空间聚集性。（2）防控措施对 COVID-19 发病率的影响最大，可解释 COVID-19 发病率差异的 34.2%，而气象因素和污染物因素只能解释 COVID-19 发病率差异的 1%。这说明部分文献高估了气象因素对疫情传播的影响。（3）气象因素的影响强于空气污染因素，且因素间的交互作用强于其单独作用，相对湿度与 NO 之间的交互作用较强。本研究结果将为进一步防控 COVID-19 提供参考。
