Department of Laboratory and Quarantine, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China.
Medicine (Baltimore). 2022 Aug 12;101(32):e30019. doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000030019.
This observation study examines coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) data from outbreak and other sites in China and worldwide in order to examine the epidemiological pattern of COVID-19 before the acquisition of immunity through widespread vaccination and infection. COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality data for January 2020 to February 2021 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and the World Health Organization. The number of cases was logarithmically transformed for comparison of the rate of increase or decrease with time across areas. From January to February 2020, the number of new confirmed cases in Wuhan grew substantially but returned to zero by May 2020. In other parts of China, the rate of decrease was lower than that in Wuhan, and the mortality rate was lower outside Wuhan (1.93%) than in Wuhan (7.68%). The influenza trends were similar to those of COVID-19, but the mortality rate of influenza was much lower (0.011%) than that of COVID-19. After the early stage, similar increase in the incidence rate with time was observed globally, although the total number of cases differed between regions. The outbreak severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 strain in Wuhan had low epidemic intensity and high virulence, but the epidemiological characteristics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 may not be associated with race, geography, or economic status. Importantly, more effective prevention and control measures and vaccines should be applied for controlling the variants.
本观察性研究旨在分析中国和全球新冠肺炎疫情爆发和其他地区的数据,以研究在广泛接种疫苗和感染之前,新冠肺炎在获得免疫力之前的流行病学模式。2020 年 1 月至 2021 年 2 月的新冠肺炎相关发病率和死亡率数据来源于中国疾病预防控制中心、湖北省疾病预防控制中心和世界卫生组织。为了比较不同地区随时间变化的增长率或减少率,对病例数进行了对数转换。2020 年 1 月至 2 月,武汉新增确诊病例数大幅增长,但到 2020 年 5 月已降为零。在中国其他地区,下降速度低于武汉,武汉以外地区的死亡率(1.93%)低于武汉(7.68%)。流感趋势与新冠肺炎相似,但流感的死亡率(0.011%)远低于新冠肺炎。在早期阶段,全球范围内观察到发病率随时间的相似增加,尽管不同地区的病例总数有所不同。武汉的新冠病毒株具有低流行强度和高毒力,但新冠病毒的流行病学特征可能与种族、地理位置或经济状况无关。重要的是,应该采取更有效的预防和控制措施和疫苗来控制变异株。