School of Public and International Affairs, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA.
O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, Indiana, USA.
Health Econ. 2022 Nov;31(11):2381-2410. doi: 10.1002/hec.4586. Epub 2022 Aug 17.
Soda taxes are implemented in several cities across the United States (US) with the aim of reducing sugar intake from sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). Sugar is linked to obesity and to higher risk of diabetes and cardiovascular conditions. Sodas are targeted with these taxes since they are the main source of sugar for consumers in the US. In presence of potential substitutes, the policy can be undermined by consumers changing their sources of sugar. We examine the heterogeneous effects of the 2017 Philadelphia soda tax on purchases of other items containing sugar. We present an empirical evaluation focusing on the potential substitution toward additional sugary foods in Philadelphia and counties bordering Philadelphia. We find an increase in sugar from purchases of sweetened foods of about 4.3% following the introduction of the tax in Philadelphia and of 3.7% in the neighboring localities. The substitution to sugary foods in Philadelphia offsets 19% of the decrease of sugar from SSBs. Additionally, we find that the substitution offsets 37% of the decrease of sugar from SSBs when including counties bordering Philadelphia. These results suggest that while SSB taxes might be effective at lowering consumption of SSBs, substitution patterns may limit the effectiveness of the tax to reduce overall sugar intake.
美国（US）的几个城市都实施了苏打税，目的是减少糖摄入量来自含糖饮料（SSBs）。糖与肥胖以及更高的糖尿病和心血管疾病风险有关。这些税收针对苏打水，因为它们是美国消费者糖的主要来源。如果存在潜在的替代品，消费者改变糖的来源可能会破坏政策。我们研究了 2017 年费城苏打税对购买其他含糖物品的异质影响。我们提出了一项实证评估，重点关注费城和毗邻费城的县的潜在替代方案向其他含糖食品的替代。我们发现，在费城引入该税之后，购买加糖食品的糖含量增加了约 4.3%，而在邻近地区增加了 3.7%。在费城，这种对含糖食品的替代抵消了 SSB 中糖减少的 19%。此外，当包括毗邻费城的县时，我们发现这种对 SSB 中糖的替代抵消了 37%的糖减少。这些结果表明，虽然 SSB 税可能有效地降低 SSB 的消费，但替代模式可能会限制税收降低整体糖摄入量的有效性。
