Jayhawk Athletic Performance Laboratory-Wu Tsai Human Performance Alliance, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2022 Aug 19;17(8):e0273427. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0273427. eCollection 2022.
The purpose of the present study was to examine differences in game-related statistical parameters between National Basketball Association (NBA) regular and post-season competitive periods and to determine which variables have the greatest contribution in discriminating between winning and losing game outcomes. The data scraping technique was used to obtain publicly available NBA game-related statistics over a three-year span (2016-2019). The total number of games examined in the present investigation was 3933 (3690 regular season and 243 post-season games). Despite small to moderate effect sizes, the findings suggest that NBA teams' style of play (i.e., tactical strategies) changes when transitioning from the regular to post-season competitive period. It becomes more conservative (i.e., fewer field goal attempts, assists, steals, turnovers, and points scored), most likely due to greater defensive pressure. Discriminant function analysis correctly classified winning and losing game outcomes during the regular and post-season competitive periods in 82.8% and 87.2% of cases, respectively. Two key game-related statistics capable of discriminating between winning and losing game outcomes were field goal percentage and defensive rebounding, accounting for 13.6% and 14.2% of the total percentage of explained variance during the regular season and 11.5% and 14.7% during post-season competitive periods. Also, overall shooting efficiency (i.e., free-throw, 2-point, and 3-point combined) accounted for 23-26% of the total percentage of explained variance.
本研究旨在考察美国职业篮球联赛（NBA）常规赛和季后赛期间与比赛相关的统计参数的差异，并确定哪些变量对区分胜负结果的贡献最大。本研究使用数据抓取技术获取了三年内（2016-2019 年）公开的 NBA 比赛相关统计数据。本研究共检查了 3933 场比赛（3690 场常规赛和 243 场季后赛）。尽管效应量较小，但研究结果表明，当 NBA 球队从常规赛过渡到季后赛时，他们的比赛风格（即战术策略）会发生变化。比赛变得更加保守（即更少的投篮尝试、助攻、抢断、失误和得分），这很可能是由于防守压力更大。判别函数分析正确地区分了常规赛和季后赛期间的胜负比赛结果，分别有 82.8%和 87.2%的案例得到正确分类。两个关键的与比赛相关的统计数据，即投篮命中率和防守篮板，能够区分胜负比赛结果，在常规赛和季后赛期间分别占总可解释方差的 13.6%和 14.2%和 11.5%和 14.7%。此外，整体投篮效率（即罚球、2 分和 3 分的总和）占总可解释方差的 23-26%。
