Department of Environmental and Forest Biology, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, New York, United States of America.
Division of Fish and Wildlife, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, Albany, New York, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2022 Aug 30;17(8):e0273707. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0273707. eCollection 2022.
In the Adirondack Park region of northern New York, USA, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and moose (Alces alces) co-occur along a temperate-boreal forest ecotone. In this region, moose exist as a small and vulnerable low-density population and over-browsing by white-tailed deer is known to reduce regeneration, sustainability, and health of forests. Here, we assess the distribution and abundance of white-tailed deer at a broad spatial scale relevant for deer and moose management in northern New York. We used density surface modeling (DSM) under a conventional distance sampling framework, tied to a winter aerial survey, to create a spatially explicit estimate of white-tailed deer abundance and density across a vast, northern forest region. We estimated 16,352 white-tailed deer (95% CI 11,762-22,734) throughout the Adirondack Park with local density ranging between 0.00-5.73 deer/km2. Most of the Adirondack Park (91.2%) supported white-tailed deer densities of ≤2 individuals/km2. White-tailed deer density increased with increasing proximity to anthropogenic land cover such as timber cuts, roads, and agriculture and decreased in areas with increasing elevation and days with snow cover. We conclude that climate change will be more favorable for white-tailed deer than for moose because milder winters and increased growing seasons will likely have a pronounced influence on deer abundance and distribution across the Adirondack Park. Therefore, identifying specific environmental conditions facilitating the expansion of white-tailed deer into areas with low-density moose populations can assist managers in anticipating potential changes in ungulate distribution and abundance and to develop appropriate management actions to mitigate negative consequences such as disease spread and increased competition for limiting resources.
在美国纽约州北部的阿迪朗达克公园地区，白尾鹿（Odocoileus virginianus）和驼鹿（Alces alces）共同生活在温带-北方森林生态过渡带。在该地区，驼鹿种群数量较少且脆弱，白尾鹿的过度啃食已知会降低森林的再生能力、可持续性和健康状况。在这里，我们评估了在纽约北部对鹿和驼鹿管理具有重要意义的广泛空间尺度上白尾鹿的分布和丰度。我们使用传统距离抽样框架下的密度表面建模（DSM），结合冬季航空调查，在广阔的北方森林地区创建了白尾鹿丰度和密度的空间明确估计。我们估计整个阿迪朗达克公园有 16352 只白尾鹿（95%置信区间 11762-22734），局部密度在 0.00-5.73 只/平方公里之间。阿迪朗达克公园的 91.2%（91.2%）支持白尾鹿密度≤2 只/平方公里。白尾鹿密度随着与人类土地利用的接近程度而增加，例如伐木、道路和农业，随着海拔升高和积雪天数增加而降低。我们的结论是，气候变化对白尾鹿比对驼鹿更为有利，因为较温和的冬季和较长的生长季节可能对白尾鹿在阿迪朗达克公园的数量和分布产生显著影响。因此，确定有利于白尾鹿扩展到低密度驼鹿种群地区的具体环境条件可以帮助管理者预测有蹄类动物分布和数量的潜在变化，并采取适当的管理措施来减轻疾病传播和对有限资源竞争加剧等负面后果。
