Wang Xu, Purohit Pallav
School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, No.100, Pingleyuan, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China.
Energy, Climate and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang. 2022;27(7):45. doi: 10.1007/s11027-022-10021-w. Epub 2022 Aug 26.
The electricity demand for space cooling in the non-residential building (NRB) sector of China is growing significantly and is becoming increasingly critical with rapid economic development and mounting impacts of climate change. The growing demand for space cooling will increase global warming due to emissions of hydrofluorocarbons used in cooling equipment and carbon dioxide emissions from the mostly fossil fuel-based electricity currently powering space cooling. This study uses the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interaction and Synergies (GAINS) model framework to estimate current and future emissions of hydrofluorocarbons and their abatement potentials for space cooling in the NRB sector of China and assess the co-benefits in the form of savings in electricity and associated reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG), air pollution, and short-lived climate pollutant emissions. Co-benefits of space cooling are assessed by taking into account (a) regional and urban/rural heterogeneities and climatic zones among different provinces; (b) technical/economic energy efficiency improvements of the cooling technologies; and (c) transition towards lower global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants under the Kigali Amendment. Under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the total energy consumption for space cooling in the NRB sector will increase from 166 TWh in 2015 to 564 TWh in 2050, primarily due to the rapid increase in the floor space area of non-residential buildings. The total GHG mitigation potential due to the transition towards low-GWP refrigerants and technical energy efficiency improvement of cooling technologies will approximately be equal to 10% of the total carbon emissions from the building sector of China in 2050.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11027-022-10021-w.
随着中国经济的快速发展和气候变化影响的加剧，非住宅建筑（NRB）部门的空间制冷电力需求正在显著增长，且日益重要。空间制冷需求的增长将导致全球变暖加剧，这是由于制冷设备中使用的氢氟碳化物排放以及目前为空间制冷供电的大部分基于化石燃料的电力所产生的二氧化碳排放。本研究使用温室气体与空气污染相互作用及协同效应（GAINS）模型框架来估计中国NRB部门当前和未来的氢氟碳化物排放量及其空间制冷减排潜力，并评估以电力节约以及相关温室气体（GHG）、空气污染和短期气候污染物排放减少形式存在的协同效益。通过考虑以下因素评估空间制冷的协同效益：（a）不同省份之间的区域和城乡异质性以及气候带；（b）制冷技术的技术/经济能效提高；（c）根据《基加利修正案》向全球变暖潜势（GWP）较低的制冷剂过渡。在照常营业（BAU）情景下，NRB部门空间制冷的总能源消耗将从2015年的166太瓦时增加到2050年的564太瓦时，这主要是由于非住宅建筑楼面面积的快速增加。由于向低GWP制冷剂过渡以及制冷技术的技术能效提高，到2050年，总的温室气体减排潜力将约等于中国建筑部门碳排放总量的10%。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s11027-022-10021-w获取的补充材料。
