Jatuporn Chalermpon, Takeuchi Kenji
School of Economics, Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, Pakkret, Nonthaburi, 11120, Thailand.
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies / Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, 606-8501, Japan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Jan;30(3):8123-8132. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-22743-0. Epub 2022 Sep 2.
This study estimates the impact of climate change on the economic growth of the agricultural sector and its variability using a panel dataset from 1995 to 2019 for 76 provinces in Thailand. The panel data analysis consists of unit root tests for identifying stationary characteristics, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds for analyzing cointegration, and pool mean group (PMG) estimation for detecting long-run and short-run effects. The cointegration results indicate the existence of long-run equilibrium in the agricultural economy and its variability to climatic and non-climatic variables. Results from the PMG estimation suggest that extreme weather events have a negative impact on the agricultural economy, but increased total rainfall has a positive association with the agricultural economy. The increases in mean average and mean minimum temperatures will reduce the variability of agricultural growth. The obtained results suggest that the productivity of agricultural households and water resources increases the agricultural revenue and reduces its variability for long-term development in the agricultural sector of Thailand.
本研究利用泰国76个省份1995年至2019年的面板数据集，估计气候变化对农业部门经济增长及其波动性的影响。面板数据分析包括用于识别平稳特征的单位根检验、用于分析协整的自回归分布滞后（ARDL）界限以及用于检测长期和短期影响的混合平均组（PMG）估计。协整结果表明农业经济及其对气候和非气候变量的波动性存在长期均衡。PMG估计结果表明，极端天气事件对农业经济有负面影响，但总降雨量增加与农业经济呈正相关。平均气温和平均最低气温的升高将降低农业增长的波动性。所得结果表明，农业家庭生产力和水资源增加了农业收入，并降低了其波动性，有利于泰国农业部门的长期发展。
